Mon, Jan 20, 2020·Pepsi Center, Denver
Detroit Red Wings 3, Colorado Avalanche 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 112 | 07 | 26 | 325 |
| COL | 018 | 216 | 412 | 646 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:28DETTyler BertuzziAssists: Dylan Larkin · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
- P2 1:02COLNazem KadriAssists: Cale Makar, Mikko Rantanen · Tip-in, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 2:56COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Cale Makar, Mikko Rantanen · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–2
- P3 4:19COLNazem KadriPPAssists: Andre Burakovsky, Nikita Zadorov · Snap, 0.08 xG1–3
- P3 5:12COLMatt NietoPPGWGAssists: Tyson Jost, Ryan Graves · Snap, 0.15 xG1–4
- P3 7:02DETDylan LarkinAssists: Tyler Bertuzzi, Filip Zadina · Backhand, 0.06 xG2–4
- P3 13:59COLRyan GravesPPAssists: Andre Burakovsky, Nazem Kadri · Slap, 0.02 xG2–5
- P3 17:57DETGivani SmithAssists: Robby Fabbri, Dylan Larkin · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–5
- P3 19:00COLNathan MacKinnonENAssists: Ian Cole, Nikita Zadorov · Wrist, 0.54 xG3–6
Penalties (5)
- P1 6:56DETPatrik Nemeth: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:06DETPatrik Nemeth: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:01COLMatt Calvert: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 17:33DETTyler Bertuzzi: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 14:53DETMadison Bowey: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestHelm – Glendening – Erne8:45
xG 0.48–0.25 (65%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
- Filppula – Fabbri – Smith5:46
xG 0.02–0.22 (8%)attempts 2–6goals 0–1
- Bertuzzi – Larkin – Zadina12:51
xG 0.72–0.94 (44%)attempts 15–16goals 2–2
Defence pairs
- bestNemeth – Bowey4:22
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 2–0
- Daley – Bowey4:13
xG 0.50–0.37 (58%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Nemeth – Hronek4:35
xG 0.18–0.19 (49%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestNieto – Kamenev – Jost7:20
xG 0.60–0.15 (80%)attempts 8–5goals 1–1
- Calvert – Compher – Bellemare8:42
xG 0.62–0.20 (75%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen10:37
xG 0.36–0.02 (96%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- Kadri – Burakovsky – Nichushkin9:42
xG 0.68–0.38 (64%)attempts 18–10goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestGraves – Makar12:54
xG 0.45–0.13 (78%)attempts 10–9goals 3–0
- Johnson – Girard11:49
xG 0.56–0.27 (68%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Cole – Zadorov12:59
xG 0.78–0.76 (51%)attempts 18–9goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).