Wed, Jan 29, 2020·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Toronto Maple Leafs 5, Dallas Stars 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 112 | 28 | 214 | 534 |
| DAL | 110 | 115 | 19 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:18TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Mitch Marner, Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 17:21DALDenis GurianovAssists: John Klingberg · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 4:40TORZach HymanAssists: Mitch Marner, Auston Matthews · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–1
- P2 11:58TORTyson BarrieAssists: Andreas Johnsson · Slap, 0.07 xG3–1
- P2 19:02DALAlexander RadulovAssists: Radek Faksa · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 3:28TORWilliam NylanderGWGAssists: Jake Muzzin, Alexander Kerfoot · Wrist, 0.22 xG4–2
- P3 6:26DALAlexander RadulovAssists: Miro Heiskanen, Mattias Janmark · Tip-in, 0.07 xG4–3
- P3 19:57TORAndreas JohnssonENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.66 xG5–3
Penalties (5)
- P2 4:54TORCody Ceci: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:14DALMiro Heiskanen: Holding2 min
- P3 8:42TORZach Hyman: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:05DALRadek Faksa: Interference2 min
- P3 12:55TORJason Spezza: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Seguin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Marner – Matthews14:22
xG 1.02–0.72 (59%)attempts 15–18goals 2–0
- Spezza – Gauthier – Moore4:57
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Tavares – Kerfoot – Nylander10:13
xG 0.50–0.25 (67%)attempts 10–9goals 1–1
- Johnsson – Kapanen – Engvall8:42
xG 0.18–0.31 (36%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Holl14:39
xG 0.91–0.58 (61%)attempts 20–14goals 1–2
- Ceci – Sandin9:38
xG 0.43–0.32 (58%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
- Holl – Dermott2:43
xG 0.05–0.08 (42%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPerry – Dowling – Janmark8:06
xG 0.77–0.39 (67%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Comeau – Cogliano – Faksa9:08
xG 0.58–0.56 (51%)attempts 17–7goals 0–1
- Radulov – Benn – Seguin12:23
xG 0.42–0.56 (43%)attempts 13–13goals 0–1
- Pavelski – Dickinson – Gurianov9:14
xG 0.30–0.46 (39%)attempts 8–8goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestOleksiak – Heiskanen7:46
xG 0.61–0.23 (73%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Lindell – Heiskanen9:27
xG 0.69–0.58 (54%)attempts 10–13goals 1–1
- Sekera – Polak6:47
xG 0.14–0.18 (45%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).