Wed, Jan 29, 2020·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Calgary Flames 4, Edmonton Oilers 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 112 | 210 | 04 | 02 | 1 | 428 |
| EDM | 017 | 211 | 14 | 02 | 0 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:01CGYElias LindholmAssists: Milan Lucic, Travis Hamonic · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P2 5:48EDMKailer YamamotoAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–1
- P2 13:05CGYAndrew MangiapaneAssists: Sam Bennett · Snap, 0.20 xG2–1
- P2 14:41EDMAlex ChiassonPPAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.35 xG2–2
- P2 19:15CGYAndrew MangiapaneAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Rasmus Andersson · Backhand, 0.09 xG3–2
- P3 11:49EDMMatt BenningAssists: Kris Russell, James Neal · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins stopped
- 2. CGY Sean Monahan scored
- 3. EDM Connor McDavid stopped
- 4. CGY Matthew Tkachuk stopped
- 5. EDM Leon Draisaitl stopped
Penalties (13)
- P1 16:11CGYSean Monahan: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:11EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:11CGYSean Monahan: Cross checking2 min
- P1 16:11EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:35EDMZack Kassian: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:35CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:53EDMMike Smith: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 6:36EDMLeon Draisaitl: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:36CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:08CGYMark Giordano: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 3:08CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 7:54CGYZac Rinaldo: Cross checking2 min
- P3 15:50CGYBuddy Robinson: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sheahan won the faceoff against Bennett
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Robinson – Monahan9:00
xG 0.69–0.09 (89%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Backlund – Bennett – Mangiapane5:00
xG 0.25–0.06 (79%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Lindholm – Mangiapane – Tkachuk5:16
xG 0.10–0.12 (45%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Gaudreau – Monahan – Tkachuk2:40
xG 0.03–0.10 (21%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Brodie13:46
xG 0.59–0.23 (72%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Andersson – Kylington11:55
xG 0.30–0.19 (61%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Giordano – Hamonic2:33
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestGagner – Chiasson – Khaira4:22
xG 0.32–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Neal – Kassian – McDavid10:34
xG 0.54–0.32 (63%)attempts 12–6goals 0–1
- Nugent-Hopkins – Draisaitl – Yamamoto11:32
xG 0.61–0.58 (51%)attempts 11–13goals 1–1
- Sheahan – Archibald – Khaira4:43
xG 0.11–0.10 (54%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Klefbom16:13
xG 0.73–0.25 (74%)attempts 14–11goals 1–1
- Russell – Benning9:49
xG 0.83–0.38 (68%)attempts 14–10goals 0–1
- Nurse – Bear20:37
xG 0.39–0.78 (33%)attempts 16–19goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).