Wed, Jan 29, 2020·Honda Center, Anaheim
Arizona Coyotes 2, Anaheim Ducks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 112 | 110 | 05 | 227 |
| ANA | 212 | 212 | 08 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:39ANAAdam HenriqueAssists: Troy Terry · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 7:18ARIVinnie HinostrozaAssists: Lawson Crouse, Nick Schmaltz · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P1 16:09ANAAdam HenriqueAssists: Ondrej Kase · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–2
- P2 5:25ANAHampus LindholmGWGAssists: Derek Grant, Nicolas Deslauriers · Slap, 0.03 xG1–3
- P2 16:01ARILawson CrouseAssists: Nick Schmaltz, Vinnie Hinostroza · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–3
- P2 19:14ANACarter RowneySHAssists: Derek Grant · Wrist, 0.27 xG2–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 10:56ANAMichael Del Zotto: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:02ARICarl Soderberg: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:59ANAJakob Silfverberg: Holding2 min
- P1 19:13ANAMax Jones: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:36ANANick Ritchie: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:51ANANick Ritchie: Interference2 min
- P3 6:32ARINick Schmaltz: Interference2 min
- P3 15:51ARIClayton Keller: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:37ARIConor Garland: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dvorak won the faceoff against Steel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- Soderberg – Grabner – Fischer6:07
xG 0.20–0.21 (49%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Kessel – Stepan – Keller9:21
xG 0.18–0.27 (40%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Hall – Dvorak – Garland9:24
xG 0.26–0.70 (27%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Hinostroza – Schmaltz – Crouse8:16
xG 0.37–1.15 (24%)attempts 7–12goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- Demers – Ekman-Larsson11:52
xG 0.36–0.70 (34%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Chychrun14:57
xG 0.52–0.88 (37%)attempts 12–13goals 1–2
- Hjalmarsson – Oesterle12:54
xG 0.50–1.70 (23%)attempts 10–19goals 1–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Silfverberg – Rakell11:04
xG 1.18–0.26 (82%)attempts 16–5goals 0–1
- Henrique – Ritchie – Terry8:48
xG 0.86–0.29 (75%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Grant – Deslauriers – Rowney6:16
xG 0.49–0.29 (63%)attempts 11–4goals 1–1
- Kase – Steel – Jones10:54
xG 0.50–0.53 (49%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudbranson – Lindholm13:34
xG 1.54–0.25 (86%)attempts 21–7goals 2–0
- Del Zotto – Larsson10:32
xG 1.14–0.60 (66%)attempts 15–8goals 1–2
- Fowler – Manson15:44
xG 0.60–0.51 (54%)attempts 10–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).