Thu, Jan 30, 2020·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Montréal Canadiens 3, Buffalo Sabres 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 08 | 214 | 18 | 330 |
| BUF | 111 | 03 | 07 | 121 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:11BUFJack EichelPPAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Marcus Johansson · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 0:44MTLIlya KovalchukAssists: Nick Suzuki, Joel Armia · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 3:05MTLBrendan GallagherGWGAssists: Tomas Tatar, Phillip Danault · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–1
- P3 18:13MTLTomas TatarENAssists: Nick Suzuki, Joel Armia · Wrist, 0.66 xG3–1
Penalties (4)
- P1 6:49MTLJoel Armia: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 16:13BUFConor Sheary: Holding2 min
- P2 16:55MTLArtturi Lehkonen: Holding2 min
- P3 13:02MTLPhillip Danault: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larsson won the faceoff against Danault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestKovalchuk – Armia – Suzuki10:18
xG 0.93–0.24 (80%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Tatar – Gallagher – Danault13:37
xG 0.91–0.28 (76%)attempts 17–7goals 1–0
- Thompson – Weise – Poehling7:07
xG 0.44–0.32 (58%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Cousins – Lehkonen – Domi7:06
xG 0.18–0.06 (73%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Kulak19:25
xG 1.42–0.27 (84%)attempts 25–5goals 0–0
- Scandella – Mete11:43
xG 0.40–0.27 (60%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Weber – Chiarot18:09
xG 0.64–0.61 (51%)attempts 15–20goals 1–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestVesey – Lazar – Sheary4:21
xG 0.31–0.09 (77%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Skinner – Reinhart – Eichel5:26
xG 0.13–0.10 (57%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Larsson – Girgensons – Vesey3:07
xG 0.10–0.16 (38%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Okposo – Larsson – Girgensons3:30
xG 0.05–0.20 (19%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Montour10:00
xG 0.42–0.28 (60%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- McCabe – Jokiharju14:23
xG 0.43–0.31 (58%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
- Ristolainen – Dahlin7:53
xG 0.12–0.12 (50%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).