Sun, Feb 2, 2020·Capital One Arena, Washington
Pittsburgh Penguins 4, Washington Capitals 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 212 | 116 | 15 | 433 |
| WSH | 110 | 09 | 213 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:38WSHLars EllerAssists: Richard Panik · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 11:46PITSam LaffertyAssists: Alex Galchenyuk · Snap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P1 12:40PITPatric HornqvistAssists: John Marino, Evgeni Malkin · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 11:59PITDominik SimonAssists: Sidney Crosby, Jared McCann · Backhand, 0.16 xG3–1
- P3 6:00WSHEvgeny KuznetsovAssists: Jakub Vrana, Nick Jensen · Backhand, 0.13 xG3–2
- P3 17:27PITBrandon TanevGWGAssists: Teddy Blueger, Zachary Aston-Reese · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–2
- P3 17:42WSHLars EllerAssists: Carl Hagelin, Radko Gudas · Snap, 0.11 xG4–3
Penalties (13)
- P1 0:35WSHAlex Ovechkin: Slashing2 min
- P1 4:09PITJack Johnson: Roughing2 min
- P1 4:09WSHGarnet Hathaway: Roughing2 min
- P1 5:42PITJohn Marino: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:18WSHLars Eller: Interference2 min
- P1 17:05PITDominik Simon: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 3:17WSHJonas Siegenthaler: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:27PITSidney Crosby: Interference2 min
- P2 15:43WSHBrendan Leipsic: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 0:17PITKris Letang: Cross checking2 min
- P3 0:17WSHTom Wilson: High sticking2 min
- P3 1:54WSHDmitry Orlov: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:41WSHCarl Hagelin: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Hornqvist – Rust8:46
xG 0.36–0.27 (58%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
- Galchenyuk – Lafferty – Angello5:01
xG 0.56–0.51 (52%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
- Blueger – Tanev – Aston-Reese7:46
xG 0.14–0.23 (37%)attempts 6–12goals 1–0
- Crosby – McCann – Simon9:43
xG 0.38–0.54 (42%)attempts 9–16goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Schultz – Ruhwedel5:19
xG 0.16–0.21 (44%)attempts 2–6goals 1–0
- Pettersson – Marino7:38
xG 0.21–0.30 (41%)attempts 8–12goals 2–0
- Ruhwedel – Pettersson2:19
xG 0.01–0.15 (9%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestDowd – Leipsic – Hathaway3:05
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Backstrom2:25
xG 0.20–0.02 (93%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Hagelin – Eller – Panik6:18
xG 0.33–0.37 (47%)attempts 10–5goals 2–1
- Oshie – Kuznetsov – Vrana8:48
xG 0.50–0.56 (47%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – Kempny3:22
xG 0.36–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 1–0
- Carlson – Orlov5:11
xG 0.38–0.04 (91%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Orlov – Jensen7:43
xG 0.54–0.42 (56%)attempts 12–8goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).