Sun, Feb 2, 2020·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Vancouver Canucks 3, Carolina Hurricanes 4 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 113 | 114 | 17 | 01 | 1 | 335 |
| CAR | 09 | 215 | 16 | 02 | 2 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:25VANElias PetterssonAssists: Chris Tanev, Quinn Hughes · Snap, 0.21 xG1–0
- P2 1:11CARNino NiederreiterAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Jake Gardiner · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 5:06CARSebastian AhoAssists: Warren Foegele, Jaccob Slavin · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 14:12VANTyler MyersAssists: Brandon Sutter, Oscar Fantenberg · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–2
- P3 5:23CARAndrei SvechnikovAssists: Warren Foegele, Joel Edmundson · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–3
- P3 9:06VANElias PetterssonAssists: J.T. Miller, Oscar Fantenberg · Snap, 0.05 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. CAR Andrei Svechnikov stopped
- 2. VAN Elias Pettersson scored
- 3. CAR Teuvo Teravainen scored
- 4. VAN J.T. Miller stopped
- 5. CAR Justin Williams scored
- 6. VAN Bo Horvat stopped
Penalties (5)
- P1 7:40CARNino Niederreiter: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:13CARErik Haula: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:10CARJaccob Slavin: Holding2 min
- P3 10:54VANJ.T. Miller: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:57CARHaydn Fleury: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Aho
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Boeser – Pettersson10:48
xG 0.80–0.47 (63%)attempts 12–12goals 2–1
- Eriksson – Pearson – Horvat11:19
xG 0.38–0.69 (35%)attempts 5–12goals 0–2
- Sutter – Beagle – Schaller7:43
xG 0.01–0.35 (4%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Roussel – Virtanen – Gaudette7:33
xG 0.15–0.60 (20%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Fantenberg13:34
xG 1.24–0.73 (63%)attempts 16–13goals 1–0
- Tanev – Hughes15:27
xG 1.00–0.87 (53%)attempts 13–15goals 2–3
- Edler – Stecher17:00
xG 0.56–0.76 (42%)attempts 14–19goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestHaula – McGinn – Necas10:29
xG 0.86–0.47 (65%)attempts 14–10goals 0–1
- Williams – Martinook – Wallmark8:16
xG 0.21–0.03 (89%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Staal – Niederreiter – Teravainen11:35
xG 0.63–0.46 (57%)attempts 11–10goals 1–2
- Foegele – Aho – Svechnikov12:04
xG 0.70–1.05 (40%)attempts 15–12goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestSlavin – van Riemsdyk13:54
xG 0.71–0.60 (54%)attempts 12–8goals 1–3
- Edmundson – Fleury10:19
xG 0.24–0.22 (52%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Edmundson – Slavin2:12
xG 0.14–0.22 (40%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).