Mon, Feb 3, 2020·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Florida Panthers 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 18 | 03 | 411 | 522 |
| TOR | 013 | 214 | 17 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:30FLAMark PysykAssists: Mike Matheson, Denis Malgin · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–0
- P2 3:21TORJohn TavaresPPAssists: Mitch Marner, Tyson Barrie · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 19:05TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Kasperi Kapanen, Andreas Johnsson · Deflected, 0.09 xG1–2
- P3 0:38TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Zach Hyman, Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–3
- P3 2:20FLAMark PysykAssists: Mike Matheson, Joshua Brown · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–3
- P3 3:18FLAJonathan HuberdeauPPAssists: Evgenii Dadonov, Mike Hoffman · Tip-in, 0.16 xG3–3
- P3 10:13FLAMike HoffmanGWGAssists: Aaron Ekblad, Mike Matheson · Backhand, 0.20 xG4–3
- P3 19:12FLAMark PysykENUnassisted · Other, 0.66 xG5–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 12:21TORJohn Tavares: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:22FLAMike Matheson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 17:03FLAJayce Hawryluk: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:11TORMitch Marner: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 6:33FLAMike Hoffman: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Acciari won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestConnolly – Trocheck – Acciari3:12
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Trocheck – Huberdeau7:01
xG 0.08–0.13 (37%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Toninato – Vatrano10:19
xG 0.05–0.29 (14%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Huberdeau – Malgin2:28
xG 0.00–0.42 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Matheson – Ekblad10:36
xG 0.48–0.43 (52%)attempts 8–10goals 1–1
- Yandle – Brown10:27
xG 0.03–0.41 (8%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Stralman – Stillman15:40
xG 0.28–0.74 (27%)attempts 9–17goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestJohnsson – Kapanen – Engvall9:02
xG 0.55–0.09 (85%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Tavares – Kerfoot – Nylander10:49
xG 0.32–0.04 (89%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Spezza – Gauthier – Moore4:21
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Hyman – Marner – Matthews13:27
xG 0.90–0.89 (50%)attempts 19–15goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Holl14:32
xG 1.13–0.02 (99%)attempts 15–4goals 1–0
- Ceci – Sandin7:55
xG 0.34–0.28 (55%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Barrie – Dermott13:29
xG 0.44–0.41 (52%)attempts 11–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).