Tue, Feb 4, 2020·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Vegas Golden Knights 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 111 | 010 | 18 | 229 |
| TBL | 28 | 05 | 25 | 418 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:57TBLBrayden PointAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Erik Cernak · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 15:42VGKWilliam CarrierAssists: Brayden McNabb, Cody Eakin · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P1 17:57TBLTyler JohnsonAssists: Anthony Cirelli, Ondrej Palat · Tip-in, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 3:47VGKPaul StastnyAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, Brayden McNabb · Tip-in, 0.05 xG2–2
- P3 10:36TBLSteven StamkosGWGAssists: Brayden Point, Nikita Kucherov · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 19:15TBLAlex KillornENAssists: Ondrej Palat · Wrist, 0.65 xG2–4
Penalties (6)
- P2 4:44TBLRyan McDonagh: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:02TBLRyan McDonagh: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:48TBLSteven Stamkos: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:55VGKJonathan Marchessault: Interference2 min
- P3 14:51TBLVictor Hedman: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:51VGKMax Pacioretty: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nosek won the faceoff against Point
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestPacioretty – Stone – Stephenson11:41
xG 0.39–0.06 (86%)attempts 9–4goals 0–1
- Reaves – Nosek – Roy6:54
xG 0.19–0.03 (85%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Eakin – Carrier – Tuch7:36
xG 0.23–0.18 (56%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Stastny – Smith – Marchessault9:21
xG 0.13–0.33 (29%)attempts 4–12goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestMerrill – Whitecloud11:54
xG 0.67–0.09 (88%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- McNabb – Schmidt13:59
xG 0.48–0.30 (61%)attempts 11–13goals 1–2
- Holden – Theodore15:32
xG 0.25–0.23 (52%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- Stamkos – Kucherov – Point13:36
xG 0.35–0.34 (51%)attempts 12–11goals 2–1
- Gourde – Verhaeghe – Stephens8:45
xG 0.10–0.25 (29%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
- Johnson – Palat – Cirelli11:58
xG 0.13–0.41 (24%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Killorn – Maroon – Paquette9:46
xG 0.02–0.44 (5%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Sergachev6:38
xG 0.17–0.02 (88%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – McDonagh6:44
xG 0.17–0.07 (70%)attempts 10–3goals 1–1
- McDonagh – Cernak8:22
xG 0.05–0.05 (54%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).