Tue, Feb 4, 2020·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
San Jose Sharks 3, Calgary Flames 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 09 | 210 | 17 | 326 |
| CGY | 016 | 111 | 04 | 131 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:59CGYJohnny GaudreauPPAssists: Elias Lindholm, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–1
- P2 3:57SJSBrent BurnsAssists: Joe Thornton · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 8:02SJSEvander KaneGWGAssists: Barclay Goodrow, Patrick Marleau · Snap, 0.34 xG2–1
- P3 7:45SJSKevin LabancAssists: Timo Meier, Joe Thornton · Backhand, 0.05 xG3–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 10:43SJSBrenden Dillon: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:08SJSBarclay Goodrow: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 18:08CGYMilan Lucic: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:14SJSEvander Kane: High sticking2 min
- P3 15:45CGYTJ Brodie: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lindholm won the faceoff against Thornton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestSorensen – Letunov – Gambrell6:33
xG 0.60–0.14 (82%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Marleau – Kane – Goodrow13:01
xG 0.49–0.16 (76%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Labanc – Meier – True2:10
xG 0.14–0.11 (56%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Noesen – Karlsson – True8:05
xG 0.29–0.40 (42%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFerraro – Simek10:50
xG 0.83–0.57 (59%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Vlasic – Karlsson19:15
xG 1.24–1.01 (55%)attempts 18–19goals 1–0
- Burns – Dillon16:04
xG 0.50–0.47 (52%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestLindholm – Mangiapane – Tkachuk4:14
xG 0.54–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Backlund – Jankowski – Bennett4:37
xG 0.41–0.03 (94%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Lucic – Bennett – Ryan2:34
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Robinson – Monahan4:22
xG 0.39–0.28 (58%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Andersson11:04
xG 0.73–0.00 (100%)attempts 14–0goals 0–0
- Hanifin – Andersson4:54
xG 0.08–0.02 (82%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Brodie15:32
xG 0.64–0.72 (47%)attempts 12–12goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).