Wed, Feb 5, 2020·Madison Square Garden, New York
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, New York Rangers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 19 | 111 | 110 | 330 |
| NYR | 313 | 112 | 110 | 535 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:36TORJohn TavaresAssists: William Nylander, Justin Holl · Snap, 0.24 xG1–0
- P1 8:50NYRFilip ChytilAssists: Tony DeAngelo, Marc Staal · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–1
- P1 17:18NYRMika ZibanejadAssists: Chris Kreider · Snap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P1 17:24NYRChris KreiderAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Mika Zibanejad · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–3
- P2 16:56TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Andreas Johnsson, Kasperi Kapanen · Backhand, 0.07 xG2–3
- P2 17:30NYRPavel BuchnevichGWGAssists: Brady Skjei · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–4
- P3 16:32TORAuston MatthewsPPAssists: John Tavares, Mitch Marner · Slap, 0.16 xG3–4
- P3 19:02NYRGreg McKeggENAssists: Pavel Buchnevich · Wrist, 0.63 xG3–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:11TORZach Hyman: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:59NYRRyan Lindgren: Cross checking2 min
- P2 5:16TORTyson Barrie: High sticking2 min
- P3 15:44NYRGreg McKegg: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 19:02TORZach Hyman: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:02NYRJacob Trouba: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:42TORJohn Tavares: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:42NYRRyan Lindgren: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- Spezza – Timashov – Moore6:11
xG 0.07–0.10 (42%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Hyman – Marner – Matthews13:53
xG 1.28–1.51 (46%)attempts 21–18goals 0–3
- Johnsson – Kapanen – Engvall8:00
xG 0.38–0.64 (37%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
- Tavares – Kerfoot – Nylander11:22
xG 0.38–1.04 (27%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Barrie2:07
xG 0.27–0.18 (60%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Ceci – Dermott4:04
xG 0.16–0.15 (52%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
- Barrie – Dermott11:39
xG 0.82–0.88 (48%)attempts 17–11goals 0–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Zibanejad – Buchnevich10:53
xG 1.50–0.11 (93%)attempts 19–7goals 3–0
- Fast – Strome – Panarin8:52
xG 0.82–0.42 (66%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- McKegg – Di Giuseppe – Howden3:24
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Fast – Panarin – Chytil2:41
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – DeAngelo12:26
xG 1.18–0.67 (64%)attempts 11–10goals 1–1
- Fox – Lindgren18:31
xG 1.40–1.37 (50%)attempts 20–21goals 2–0
- Skjei – Trouba14:44
xG 0.61–0.86 (42%)attempts 11–22goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).