Thu, Feb 6, 2020·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Colorado Avalanche 4, Ottawa Senators 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 113 | 210 | 111 | 434 |
| OTT | 15 | 010 | 011 | 126 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:57COLValeri NichushkinAssists: Andre Burakovsky · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 19:10OTTBrady TkachukAssists: Chris Tierney, Connor Brown · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 4:08COLMatt NietoGWGAssists: Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, Tyson Jost · Snap, 0.16 xG2–1
- P2 8:03COLCale MakarPPAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Nathan MacKinnon · Slap, 0.04 xG3–1
- P3 3:38COLJ.T. CompherAssists: Cale Makar, Ryan Graves · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–1
Penalties (3)
- P1 13:16COLGabriel Landeskog: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:55COLNikita Zadorov: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 6:26OTTMike Reilly: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Pageau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLandeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen14:51
xG 0.73–0.35 (67%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
- Calvert – Donskoi – Compher10:39
xG 0.37–0.04 (89%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Nieto – Bellemare – Jost8:06
xG 0.51–0.36 (58%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Kadri – Burakovsky – Nichushkin13:14
xG 0.55–0.62 (47%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Zadorov14:02
xG 0.81–0.45 (64%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Graves – Makar17:35
xG 0.64–0.43 (60%)attempts 14–19goals 1–0
- Johnson – Girard15:58
xG 0.73–0.53 (58%)attempts 14–14goals 2–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestTierney – Batherson – Tkachuk4:33
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Ennis – Tierney – Brown2:28
xG 0.14–0.11 (55%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Sabourin – White – Chlapik3:55
xG 0.09–0.21 (30%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1
- Ennis – Pageau – Brown4:03
xG 0.12–0.26 (32%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Borowiecki – DeMelo16:12
xG 0.67–0.66 (50%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
- Reilly – Zaitsev16:40
xG 0.38–0.78 (33%)attempts 16–18goals 1–0
- Hainsey – Chabot16:51
xG 0.23–0.83 (21%)attempts 12–17goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).