Sat, Feb 8, 2020·Bell MTS Place, Winnipeg
Ottawa Senators 2, Winnipeg Jets 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 010 | 29 | 08 | 227 |
| WPG | 111 | 311 | 112 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:48WPGNeal PionkAssists: Mason Appleton, Kyle Connor · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 0:25OTTJean-Gabriel PageauAssists: Brady Tkachuk · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 7:49WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Anthony Bitetto · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 17:04WPGPatrik LaineGWGAssists: Kyle Connor, Neal Pionk · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–3
- P2 18:29OTTMikkel BoedkerUnassisted · Snap, 0.12 xG2–3
- P2 19:48WPGPatrik LainePPAssists: Neal Pionk, Blake Wheeler · Deflected, 0.11 xG2–4
- P3 8:43WPGPatrik LainePPAssists: Blake Wheeler, Kyle Connor · Snap, 0.33 xG2–5
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:15OTTNick Paul: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:15WPGNathan Beaulieu: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:47OTTThomas Chabot: Holding2 min
- P1 11:22WPGPatrik Laine: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 14:10OTTBrady Tkachuk: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:10WPGBlake Wheeler: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:37WPGNikolaj Ehlers: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:17WPGNikolaj Ehlers: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:43OTTMike Reilly: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:00OTTThomas Chabot: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 7:48OTTDylan DeMelo: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against White
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestPageau – Duclair – Tkachuk3:36
xG 0.44–0.14 (77%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Namestnikov – Tierney – Brown2:01
xG 0.20–0.03 (88%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Pageau – Brown – Tkachuk4:54
xG 0.19–0.11 (63%)attempts 3–5goals 1–1
- Namestnikov – Tierney – Duclair5:15
xG 0.10–0.02 (84%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestReilly – Zaitsev13:40
xG 0.86–0.41 (67%)attempts 21–10goals 2–1
- Hainsey – Goloubef13:25
xG 0.36–0.43 (46%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Chabot14:35
xG 0.80–1.45 (36%)attempts 18–10goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestScheifele – Connor – Laine12:42
xG 0.64–0.54 (54%)attempts 12–13goals 0–1
- Bourque – Shaw – Shore4:45
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 1–9goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Ehlers – Appleton8:41
xG 0.15–0.23 (39%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Copp – Harkins – Roslovic11:34
xG 0.22–0.73 (23%)attempts 11–18goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMorrissey – Pionk16:54
xG 1.81–0.76 (70%)attempts 17–19goals 1–1
- Kulikov – Niku14:54
xG 1.02–0.71 (59%)attempts 12–16goals 0–0
- Bitetto – Beaulieu12:54
xG 0.36–0.82 (30%)attempts 14–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).