Sat, Feb 8, 2020·TD Garden, Boston
Arizona Coyotes 2, Boston Bruins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 06 | 115 | 110 | 231 |
| BOS | 09 | 312 | 112 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:26ARIPhil KesselUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 6:50BOSCharlie CoyleAssists: Charlie McAvoy, David Krejci · Snap, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 12:06BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: David Pastrnak, Torey Krug · Deflected, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 14:35BOSJake DeBruskGWGAssists: David Pastrnak, Patrice Bergeron · Deflected, 0.11 xG1–3
- P3 0:26ARIJakob ChychrunAssists: Clayton Keller, Vinnie Hinostroza · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–3
- P3 19:11BOSCharlie CoyleENAssists: Patrice Bergeron · Wrist, 0.50 xG2–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 9:09BOSCharlie McAvoy: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:06ARIConor Garland: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:27BOSJeremy Lauzon: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:39BOSJeremy Lauzon: Match penatly 10 minutes10 min
- P2 4:46ARILawson Crouse: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:59ARIBrad Richardson: Interference2 min
- P2 14:13ARINiklas Hjalmarsson: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Richardson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestHinostroza – Schmaltz – Keller9:04
xG 0.71–0.26 (73%)attempts 19–7goals 1–0
- Soderberg – Kessel – Stepan3:49
xG 0.17–0.20 (46%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Richardson – Soderberg – Fischer3:54
xG 0.03–0.16 (17%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Hall – Dvorak – Garland9:40
xG 0.04–0.24 (14%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChychrun – Lyubushkin10:57
xG 0.69–0.24 (75%)attempts 18–8goals 1–0
- Ness – Lyubushkin2:21
xG 0.00–0.21 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–1
- Goligoski – Ness6:31
xG 0.12–0.38 (24%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKrejci – DeBrusk – Kuhlman8:51
xG 0.65–0.28 (70%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Coyle – Kuraly – Bjork8:01
xG 0.26–0.14 (64%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak8:41
xG 0.35–0.35 (50%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
- Wagner – Blidh – Lindholm6:56
xG 0.03–0.50 (6%)attempts 3–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMoore – Krug7:50
xG 0.63–0.12 (84%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
- Moore – Grzelcyk6:26
xG 0.55–0.23 (70%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Grzelcyk – Lauzon2:53
xG 0.06–0.03 (66%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).