Sat, Feb 8, 2020·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Calgary Flames 6, Vancouver Canucks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 29 | 112 | 311 | 632 |
| VAN | 212 | 07 | 08 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:34VANTanner PearsonAssists: Quinn Hughes, Bo Horvat · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 4:20CGYDerek RyanAssists: Milan Lucic, Dillon Dube · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P1 12:08CGYMatthew TkachukAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Mikael Backlund · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–1
- P1 18:13VANAdam GaudetteUnassisted · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–2
- P2 2:51CGYDillon DubeGWGAssists: Derek Ryan · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 6:48CGYMilan LucicPPAssists: Mikael Backlund, Dillon Dube · Deflected, 0.02 xG4–2
- P3 16:01CGYSean MonahanAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Elias Lindholm · Snap, 0.19 xG5–2
- P3 17:49CGYTobias RiederENAssists: Noah Hanifin · Wrist, 0.68 xG6–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 0:35CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:35VANJ.T. Miller: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:28CGYTJ Brodie: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:57CGYJohnny Gaudreau: Interference2 min
- P2 12:48CGYMikael Backlund: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:48VANJacob Markstrom: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:53CGYMilan Lucic: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:53VANAntoine Roussel: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:48VANElias Pettersson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 8:28CGYAndrew Mangiapane: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Monahan won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestRieder – Jankowski – Bennett7:10
xG 0.63–0.04 (94%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Backlund – Mangiapane – Tkachuk9:04
xG 0.60–0.30 (67%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Lucic – Ryan – Dube7:45
xG 0.22–0.17 (57%)attempts 8–6goals 2–0
- Gaudreau – Lindholm – Monahan13:03
xG 0.43–0.79 (35%)attempts 7–17goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestHanifin – Andersson8:08
xG 0.84–0.19 (82%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Stone – Brodie4:40
xG 0.55–0.16 (77%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Brodie – Hanifin4:20
xG 0.44–0.10 (81%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestEriksson – Pearson – Horvat9:55
xG 0.68–0.23 (74%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Sutter – Roussel – Gaudette2:47
xG 0.16–0.00 (97%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Miller – Boeser – Pettersson5:31
xG 0.35–0.40 (46%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Miller – Virtanen – Pettersson2:25
xG 0.09–0.19 (32%)attempts 4–1goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Edler – Tanev2:31
xG 0.02–0.07 (27%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Edler – Stecher15:06
xG 0.55–0.62 (47%)attempts 18–12goals 0–1
- Myers – Hughes3:03
xG 0.09–0.25 (26%)attempts 4–4goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).