Mon, Feb 10, 2020·Capital One Arena, Washington
New York Islanders 5, Washington Capitals 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 310 | 214 | 08 | 532 |
| WSH | 110 | 28 | 011 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:30NYIAnthony BeauvillierAssists: Josh Bailey, Brock Nelson · Snap, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 6:16NYIAnthony BeauvillierAssists: Brock Nelson, Josh Bailey · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–0
- P1 12:55WSHJohn CarlsonAssists: Nicklas Backstrom · Slap, 0.03 xG2–1
- P1 18:06NYIDevon ToewsAssists: Josh Bailey, Ryan Pulock · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–1
- P2 0:45NYILeo KomarovGWGAssists: Brock Nelson, Nick Leddy · Slap, 0.09 xG4–1
- P2 10:36NYIJordan EberleAssists: Anders Lee, Mathew Barzal · Wrist, 0.14 xG5–1
- P2 11:25WSHLars EllerAssists: Carl Hagelin, Michal Kempny · Wrist, 0.24 xG5–2
- P2 16:59WSHT.J. OshiePPAssists: John Carlson, Nicklas Backstrom · Slap, 0.07 xG5–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 17:18WSHMartin Fehérváry: Holding2 min
- P1 17:55NYIJordan Eberle: Holding2 min
- P2 2:54WSHGarnet Hathaway: Interference2 min
- P2 2:54WSHGarnet Hathaway: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:54NYIRoss Johnston: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:10NYIMathew Barzal: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:29NYIScott Mayfield: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cizikas won the faceoff against Eller
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Nelson – Beauvillier11:31
xG 1.14–0.43 (73%)attempts 10–13goals 2–1
- Eberle – Lee – Barzal11:22
xG 0.58–0.21 (73%)attempts 11–8goals 1–1
- Brassard – Johnston – Dal Colle6:36
xG 0.43–0.31 (58%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Komarov – Martin – Cizikas12:33
xG 0.06–0.19 (24%)attempts 5–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPulock – Toews11:53
xG 0.76–0.39 (66%)attempts 10–12goals 2–1
- Boychuk – Toews2:43
xG 0.44–0.11 (81%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Boychuk – Leddy6:54
xG 0.39–0.06 (87%)attempts 5–6goals 1–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestHagelin – Eller – Panik10:54
xG 0.60–0.30 (66%)attempts 18–6goals 1–0
- Oshie – Eller – Vrana4:04
xG 0.14–0.14 (50%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Oshie – Kuznetsov – Vrana5:40
xG 0.12–0.17 (41%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Dowd – Leipsic – Hathaway6:17
xG 0.02–0.14 (11%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – Siegenthaler8:40
xG 0.26–0.12 (69%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Orlov – Kempny7:09
xG 0.31–0.22 (59%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- Carlson – Fehérváry3:26
xG 0.20–0.19 (51%)attempts 8–3goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).