Tue, Feb 11, 2020·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Arizona Coyotes 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 112 | 114 | 08 | 03 | 237 |
| TOR | 113 | 010 | 114 | 14 | 341 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:04ARIChristian DvorakAssists: Conor Garland, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 14:23TORZach HymanAssists: Tyson Barrie, Alexander Kerfoot · Slap, 0.40 xG1–1
- P2 19:13ARICarl SoderbergAssists: Brad Richardson, Jakob Chychrun · Backhand, 0.16 xG2–1
- P3 1:33TORZach HymanAssists: John Tavares, Alexander Kerfoot · Slap, 0.15 xG2–2
- OT 3:43TORKasperi KapanenGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 10:03ARIJakob Chychrun: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:24TORJake Muzzin: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:27ARINick Schmaltz: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:21TORKyle Clifford: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 13:19ARIPhil Kessel: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:25TORZach Hyman: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richardson won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestRichardson – Soderberg – Fischer9:04
xG 0.55–0.31 (64%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Hinostroza – Schmaltz – Keller7:27
xG 0.29–0.24 (55%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
- Kessel – Stepan – Crouse10:00
xG 0.20–0.47 (30%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Hall – Dvorak – Garland10:58
xG 0.35–0.68 (34%)attempts 9–10goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Chychrun18:10
xG 1.19–0.93 (56%)attempts 17–18goals 1–0
- Hjalmarsson – Ekman-Larsson16:35
xG 0.83–0.63 (57%)attempts 16–15goals 1–1
- Oesterle – Lyubushkin10:35
xG 0.20–0.22 (48%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Hyman – Kerfoot12:46
xG 1.25–0.36 (77%)attempts 15–12goals 2–1
- Spezza – Johnsson – Kapanen6:58
xG 0.36–0.04 (89%)attempts 14–2goals 0–0
- Clifford – Aberg – Engvall7:05
xG 0.20–0.37 (35%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Nylander – Marner – Matthews14:40
xG 0.50–0.73 (41%)attempts 16–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Holl17:17
xG 1.23–0.60 (67%)attempts 18–16goals 1–1
- Barrie – Dermott16:09
xG 0.91–0.70 (56%)attempts 20–19goals 1–0
- Liljegren – Sandin8:23
xG 0.19–0.56 (25%)attempts 13–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).