Thu, Feb 13, 2020·Prudential Center, Newark
Detroit Red Wings 1, New Jersey Devils 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 012 | 15 | 09 | 126 |
| NJD | 04 | 011 | 411 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 16:34DETAndreas AthanasiouPPAssists: Anthony Mantha, Filip Hronek · Snap, 0.11 xG1–0
- P3 5:10NJDAndy GreeneAssists: Pavel Zacha, Damon Severson · Slap, 0.01 xG1–1
- P3 6:54NJDWayne SimmondsGWGAssists: Miles Wood, Pavel Zacha · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
- P3 8:37NJDWayne SimmondsPPAssists: Kyle Palmieri, Damon Severson · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–3
- P3 9:10NJDJesper BrattAssists: P.K. Subban, Will Butcher · Snap, 0.02 xG1–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 0:52NJDDamon Severson: Hooking2 min
- P1 3:22DETDarren Helm: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 11:18NJDAndy Greene: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:59DETTyler Bertuzzi: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:49NJDMiles Wood: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:30DETMike Green: Cross checking2 min
- P2 9:35DETGustav Lindstrom: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 11:49DETAlex Biega: Interference2 min
- P2 15:10NJDBlake Coleman: Illegal check to head2 min · PPG
- P3 7:51DETAlex Biega: Delaying game smothering puck2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Zajac
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestHelm – Mantha – Larkin7:08
xG 0.75–0.22 (77%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Mantha – Larkin – Fabbri3:42
xG 0.14–0.02 (88%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
- Glendening – Athanasiou – Bertuzzi3:19
xG 0.33–0.22 (60%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
- Abdelkader – Erne – Ehn5:24
xG 0.30–0.33 (47%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGreen – Hronek12:22
xG 0.47–0.28 (63%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Daley – Biega10:59
xG 0.46–0.52 (47%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Nemeth – Lindstrom13:18
xG 0.71–0.80 (47%)attempts 10–17goals 0–1
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestPalmieri – Bratt – Hughes10:10
xG 0.77–0.31 (71%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Hayden – Rooney – Anderson6:48
xG 0.21–0.11 (66%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Wood – Zacha8:16
xG 0.39–0.49 (45%)attempts 6–10goals 2–0
- Zajac – Coleman – Gusev8:02
xG 0.12–0.53 (19%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestButcher – Mueller2:03
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
- Carrick – Butcher3:28
xG 0.18–0.02 (88%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Subban – Butcher7:24
xG 0.32–0.21 (61%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).