Sat, Feb 15, 2020·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Philadelphia Flyers 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 08 | 110 | 215 | 333 |
| TBL | 211 | 16 | 27 | 524 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:17TBLAlex KillornAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Mikhail Sergachev · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 14:55TBLCedric PaquetteAssists: Tyler Johnson, Patrick Maroon · Snap, 0.16 xG0–2
- P2 2:35TBLCarter VerhaegheAssists: Victor Hedman, Yanni Gourde · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–3
- P2 8:57PHIIvan ProvorovPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Sean Couturier · Slap, 0.05 xG1–3
- P3 12:34TBLBrayden PointGWGAssists: Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–4
- P3 15:31PHIJames van RiemsdykPPAssists: Matt Niskanen, Travis Sanheim · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–4
- P3 16:15PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Ivan Provorov, Travis Konecny · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–4
- P3 19:38TBLNikita KucherovENAssists: Steven Stamkos, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.64 xG3–5
Penalties (15)
- P1 5:37TBLMitchell Stephens: Cross checking2 min
- P1 7:53PHIIvan Provorov: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:53TBLNikita Kucherov: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 10:36PHIMichael Raffl: Elbowing2 min
- P2 13:09TBLYanni Gourde: Interference2 min
- P2 13:51PHITravis Konecny: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:51TBLSteven Stamkos: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:51PHIClaude Giroux: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:12PHITravis Konecny: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00TBLBraydon Coburn: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00PHIJakub Voracek: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00TBLErik Cernak: Misconduct10 min
- P3 0:46PHIIvan Provorov: Boarding2 min
- P3 5:01TBLBraydon Coburn: Holding2 min
- P3 14:00TBLMitchell Stephens: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Cirelli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Voracek – Couturier9:40
xG 0.41–0.32 (56%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- Hayes – Konecny – Farabee8:25
xG 0.32–0.34 (48%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Pitlick – Laughton7:12
xG 0.14–0.28 (33%)attempts 4–6goals 0–2
- Raffl – Aube-Kubel – Bunnaman6:02
xG 0.13–0.41 (24%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Sanheim – Myers12:29
xG 0.34–0.45 (43%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Provorov – Myers2:26
xG 0.01–0.13 (10%)attempts 1–2goals 0–1
- Niskanen – Provorov9:58
xG 0.21–0.38 (36%)attempts 5–7goals 0–2
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestGourde – Verhaeghe – Stephens6:29
xG 0.62–0.22 (74%)attempts 11–3goals 1–0
- Stamkos – Kucherov – Point10:04
xG 0.40–0.14 (74%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Maroon – Johnson – Paquette8:10
xG 0.38–0.41 (48%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Killorn – Palat – Cirelli9:26
xG 0.26–0.44 (37%)attempts 4–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Sergachev10:59
xG 0.57–0.19 (75%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Coburn – Schenn7:07
xG 0.36–0.10 (78%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Hedman – Cernak11:05
xG 0.69–0.46 (60%)attempts 10–9goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).