Sat, Feb 15, 2020·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Washington Capitals 1, Arizona Coyotes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 014 | 19 | 014 | 137 |
| ARI | 010 | 111 | 29 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:06ARIChristian DvorakAssists: Conor Garland, Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–1
- P2 17:10WSHCarl HagelinAssists: Travis Boyd, Richard Panik · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–1
- P3 5:25ARIPhil KesselPPGWGAssists: Jakob Chychrun, Clayton Keller · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–2
- P3 19:32ARILawson CrouseENAssists: Derek Stepan, Jakob Chychrun · Backhand, 0.68 xG1–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:54ARIVinnie Hinostroza: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 11:52WSHLars Eller: Holding2 min
- P2 0:28ARIBrad Richardson: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:56WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:28WSHMichal Kempny: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 10:31ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Richardson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestHagelin – Panik – Boyd8:57
xG 0.46–0.18 (72%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Wilson13:12
xG 0.28–0.27 (51%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Dowd – Leipsic – Hathaway6:18
xG 0.19–0.24 (43%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Oshie – Eller – Vrana9:01
xG 0.21–1.16 (15%)attempts 9–20goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – Kempny7:02
xG 0.25–0.12 (67%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Orlov – Jensen8:34
xG 0.46–0.35 (57%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Carlson – Orlov8:23
xG 0.27–0.24 (53%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestStepan – Hinostroza – Crouse9:53
xG 0.83–0.13 (86%)attempts 18–7goals 0–0
- Kessel – Schmaltz – Keller7:05
xG 0.39–0.12 (77%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Richardson – Soderberg – Fischer11:22
xG 0.29–0.20 (60%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Hall – Dvorak – Garland8:39
xG 0.46–0.57 (45%)attempts 11–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Chychrun12:49
xG 1.28–0.57 (69%)attempts 21–17goals 1–1
- Oesterle – Lyubushkin13:33
xG 0.37–0.36 (51%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
- Hjalmarsson – Ekman-Larsson16:41
xG 0.31–0.38 (45%)attempts 11–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).