Sun, Feb 16, 2020·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Dallas Stars 3, Ottawa Senators 4 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 212 | 011 | 115 | 01 | 339 |
| OTT | 219 | 014 | 111 | 12 | 446 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:03DALJohn KlingbergAssists: Jamie Benn, Jason Dickinson · Deflected, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 7:36OTTJean-Gabriel PageauPPAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Thomas Chabot · Snap, 0.23 xG1–1
- P1 18:10OTTBrady TkachukAssists: Anthony Duclair, Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–2
- P1 18:43DALStephen JohnsAssists: Miro Heiskanen, Tyler Seguin · Slap, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 9:59OTTTyler EnnisUnassisted · Deflected, 0.12 xG2–3
- P3 14:49DALJoe PavelskiAssists: Tyler Seguin, Miro Heiskanen · Snap, 0.05 xG3–3
- OT 3:48OTTArtem AnisimovGWGAssists: Brady Tkachuk · Backhand, 0.29 xG3–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 6:43DALJamie Benn: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P2 0:45DALCorey Perry: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:45OTTBrady Tkachuk: Embellishment2 min
- P3 0:39DALAnton Khudobin: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00White won the faceoff against Faksa
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPerry – Dickinson – Hintz3:29
xG 0.66–0.14 (82%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Benn – Dickinson – Gurianov6:13
xG 0.05–0.11 (34%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Perry – Seguin – Hintz9:44
xG 0.26–0.39 (40%)attempts 7–15goals 1–0
- Benn – Seguin – Gurianov4:24
xG 0.30–0.57 (35%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlingberg – Oleksiak11:39
xG 0.73–0.35 (68%)attempts 18–10goals 0–1
- Klingberg – Lindell7:07
xG 0.35–0.18 (66%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Polak – Oleksiak4:26
xG 0.32–0.19 (62%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestPageau – Duclair – Tkachuk13:17
xG 1.09–0.49 (69%)attempts 19–9goals 1–0
- Ennis – White – Batherson10:04
xG 0.45–0.24 (65%)attempts 9–9goals 1–1
- Anisimov – Sabourin – Paul6:00
xG 0.12–0.05 (72%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Namestnikov – Tierney – Brown14:30
xG 0.55–0.65 (46%)attempts 21–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Chabot18:41
xG 1.26–0.25 (84%)attempts 25–10goals 1–1
- Hainsey – Goloubef12:44
xG 0.48–0.31 (61%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
- Reilly – Zaitsev18:07
xG 0.54–1.29 (30%)attempts 18–27goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).