Mon, Feb 17, 2020·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Anaheim Ducks 4, Calgary Flames 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 010 | 210 | 210 | 430 |
| CGY | 012 | 118 | 513 | 643 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:53ANAAdam HenriqueAssists: Troy Terry, Nick Ritchie · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 6:46CGYAndrew MangiapaneAssists: Noah Hanifin, Matthew Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–1
- P2 10:37ANAJakob SilfverbergUnassisted · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–1
- P3 3:05ANANicolas DeslauriersAssists: Carter Rowney · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–1
- P3 4:46CGYAndrew MangiapaneUnassisted · Backhand, 0.10 xG3–2
- P3 5:05CGYSam BennettAssists: Michael Stone · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–3
- P3 12:59CGYMatthew TkachukAssists: Andrew Mangiapane, Mikael Backlund · Wrist, 0.27 xG3–4
- P3 14:03CGYSean MonahanGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.24 xG3–5
- P3 19:03CGYAndrew MangiapaneENAssists: Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.67 xG3–6
- P3 19:56ANADevin ShoreAssists: Jacob Larsson, Jakob Silfverberg · Tip-in, 0.04 xG4–6
Penalties (6)
- P1 10:33ANABrendan Guhle: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:51CGYAndrew Mangiapane: Interference2 min
- P2 12:44ANANick Ritchie: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:30ANANicolas Deslauriers: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:00CGYMilan Lucic: Holding2 min
- P3 14:26ANASam Steel: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Grant won the faceoff against Bennett
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestSilfverberg – Shore – Steel9:02
xG 0.51–0.35 (59%)attempts 12–5goals 2–1
- Grant – Deslauriers – Rowney6:43
xG 0.05–0.43 (11%)attempts 3–5goals 1–1
- Henrique – Ritchie – Terry10:12
xG 0.68–1.20 (36%)attempts 12–14goals 1–1
- Getzlaf – Rakell – Jones10:27
xG 0.36–1.07 (25%)attempts 6–15goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Holzer – Larsson10:34
xG 0.64–0.67 (49%)attempts 14–10goals 2–1
- Fowler – Guhle13:16
xG 0.84–1.39 (38%)attempts 12–19goals 1–2
- Manson – Lindholm16:14
xG 0.34–1.47 (19%)attempts 10–20goals 1–2
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Mangiapane – Tkachuk13:23
xG 2.00–0.15 (93%)attempts 24–5goals 3–0
- Gaudreau – Lindholm – Monahan11:25
xG 1.05–0.57 (65%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Rinaldo – Rieder – Jankowski5:39
xG 0.27–0.06 (81%)attempts 7–2goals 0–1
- Lucic – Bennett – Dube9:12
xG 0.45–0.88 (34%)attempts 7–10goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestStone – Brodie15:13
xG 0.91–0.29 (76%)attempts 19–7goals 1–2
- Kylington – Yelesin9:40
xG 0.69–0.28 (71%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Hanifin – Andersson13:15
xG 1.24–1.09 (53%)attempts 17–14goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).