Tue, Feb 18, 2020·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Buffalo Sabres 4, Ottawa Senators 7
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 212 | 27 | 08 | 427 |
| OTT | 415 | 116 | 29 | 740 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:14BUFBrandon MontourUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 10:12BUFBrandon MontourAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen, Victor Olofsson · Slap, 0.02 xG2–0
- P1 14:02OTTVladislav NamestnikovSHAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Mike Reilly · Snap, 0.21 xG2–1
- P1 15:07OTTArtem AnisimovAssists: Nick Paul, Scott Sabourin · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–2
- P1 15:16OTTDrake BathersonAssists: Colin White, Tyler Ennis · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–3
- P1 17:31OTTArtem AnisimovPPAssists: Tyler Ennis, Mike Reilly · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–4
- P2 2:36BUFKyle OkposoAssists: Johan Larsson, Brandon Montour · Tip-in, 0.16 xG3–4
- P2 9:00OTTJean-Gabriel PageauGWGAssists: Anthony Duclair, Brady Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.28 xG3–5
- P2 13:47BUFVictor OlofssonPPAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Jack Eichel · Slap, 0.06 xG4–5
- P3 12:53OTTJean-Gabriel PageauPPAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Drake Batherson · Snap, 0.28 xG4–6
- P3 19:14OTTAnthony DuclairENAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Wrist, 0.67 xG4–7
Penalties (6)
- P1 12:05OTTRon Hainsey: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:45BUFJeff Skinner: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 12:54OTTBrady Tkachuk: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 16:05OTTMike Reilly: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:21BUFJake McCabe: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 17:35OTTVladislav Namestnikov: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eichel won the faceoff against Pageau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- Reinhart – Olofsson – Eichel15:00
xG 0.77–0.90 (46%)attempts 15–16goals 1–1
- Okposo – Larsson – Girgensons7:59
xG 0.39–0.55 (41%)attempts 10–10goals 1–1
- Johansson – Vesey – Lazar7:14
xG 0.18–0.36 (33%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
- Skinner – Sheary – Rodrigues6:55
xG 0.27–0.92 (23%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRistolainen – Montour17:52
xG 0.89–0.81 (52%)attempts 15–20goals 3–1
- McCabe – Jokiharju15:39
xG 0.51–0.92 (36%)attempts 18–16goals 0–1
- Miller – Dahlin13:22
xG 0.59–1.26 (32%)attempts 13–19goals 0–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestPageau – Duclair – Tkachuk11:32
xG 0.73–0.54 (58%)attempts 12–11goals 1–1
- Ennis – White – Batherson7:29
xG 0.57–0.39 (60%)attempts 11–7goals 1–1
- Namestnikov – Tierney – Brown9:56
xG 0.32–0.16 (66%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Anisimov – Sabourin – Paul6:53
xG 0.30–0.61 (33%)attempts 9–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Chabot18:08
xG 1.81–0.20 (90%)attempts 22–10goals 2–0
- Chabot – Zaitsev4:33
xG 0.15–0.27 (36%)attempts 1–7goals 0–1
- Goloubef – Englund4:59
xG 0.00–0.23 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).