Tue, Feb 18, 2020·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Montréal Canadiens 3, Detroit Red Wings 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 29 | 19 | 04 | 322 |
| DET | 04 | 111 | 310 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:59MTLNate ThompsonAssists: Nick Cousins, Paul Byron · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 16:03MTLJeff PetryPPAssists: Nick Suzuki, Jordan Weal · Slap, 0.05 xG2–0
- P2 1:24DETRobby FabbriAssists: Anthony Mantha, Dylan Larkin · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 12:40MTLNick SuzukiPPAssists: Jordan Weal, Tomas Tatar · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–1
- P3 5:04DETAndreas AthanasiouAssists: Alex Biega, Valtteri Filppula · Backhand, 0.10 xG3–2
- P3 10:41DETMike GreenAssists: Anthony Mantha, Dylan Larkin · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–3
- P3 14:45DETAndreas AthanasiouGWGAssists: Tyler Bertuzzi · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 14:35DETGustav Lindstrom: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 12:07DETGustav Lindstrom: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 19:39MTLNate Thompson: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:18MTLPhillip Danault: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:27DETMadison Bowey: Holding2 min
- P3 17:16MTLJoel Armia: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nielsen won the faceoff against Danault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestThompson – Byron – Cousins8:13
xG 0.51–0.26 (66%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Armia – Drouin – Suzuki9:36
xG 0.70–0.50 (58%)attempts 9–10goals 0–2
- Tatar – Weal – Danault10:15
xG 0.18–0.03 (87%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Kovalchuk – Lehkonen – Domi11:40
xG 0.38–0.26 (59%)attempts 13–7goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Kulak15:26
xG 0.92–0.36 (72%)attempts 21–8goals 0–1
- Ouellet – Kulak3:43
xG 0.30–0.04 (89%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Weber – Kulak2:19
xG 0.02–0.05 (32%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestMantha – Larkin – Fabbri14:48
xG 0.78–0.56 (58%)attempts 11–14goals 2–0
- Nielsen – Helm – Glendening8:26
xG 0.03–0.11 (19%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Filppula – Athanasiou – Bertuzzi10:36
xG 0.59–0.75 (44%)attempts 16–7goals 2–1
- Erne – Perlini – Ehn4:54
xG 0.01–0.49 (2%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBiega – Nemeth13:34
xG 0.46–0.28 (62%)attempts 10–8goals 2–0
- Daley – Lindstrom11:58
xG 0.51–0.81 (39%)attempts 12–13goals 0–1
- Green – Bowey20:09
xG 0.55–1.05 (35%)attempts 13–22goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).