Wed, Feb 19, 2020·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Arizona Coyotes 2, Dallas Stars 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 021 | 213 | 07 | 241 |
| DAL | 113 | 112 | 18 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:19DALCorey PerryAssists: Roope Hintz, Denis Gurianov · Snap, 0.22 xG0–1
- P2 12:32ARITaylor HallPPAssists: Jordan Oesterle, Nick Schmaltz · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 16:01DALRadek FaksaAssists: Corey Perry, Denis Gurianov · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 18:12ARIChristian FischerAssists: Christian Dvorak, Ilya Lyubushkin · Deflected, 0.24 xG2–2
- P3 11:38DALJamie OleksiakPPGWGAssists: Alexander Radulov, Miro Heiskanen · Snap, 0.05 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 0:51ARIJakob Chychrun: High sticking2 min
- P1 16:21DALJoe Pavelski: Holding2 min
- P2 8:36ARIAlex Goligoski: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:36DALCorey Perry: Cross checking2 min
- P2 10:27DALJamie Benn: Boarding5 min · PPG
- P2 10:27DALJamie Benn: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 14:12ARICarl Soderberg: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dvorak won the faceoff against Seguin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestStepan – Schmaltz – Keller4:55
xG 0.31–0.05 (87%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Stepan – Hinostroza – Crouse5:06
xG 0.20–0.02 (90%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Kessel – Schmaltz – Keller6:25
xG 0.25–0.18 (59%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Soderberg – Kessel – Hinostroza3:07
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOesterle – Lyubushkin13:50
xG 1.70–0.72 (70%)attempts 18–15goals 1–0
- Goligoski – Chychrun14:02
xG 0.41–0.58 (42%)attempts 19–10goals 0–0
- Hjalmarsson – Ekman-Larsson12:25
xG 0.15–1.16 (12%)attempts 7–17goals 0–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Radulov – Janmark10:16
xG 0.97–0.54 (64%)attempts 14–13goals 1–0
- Comeau – Cogliano – Faksa7:45
xG 0.32–0.05 (87%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Benn – Dickinson – Gurianov4:13
xG 0.06–0.57 (10%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Perry – Seguin – Hintz8:05
xG 0.03–0.70 (4%)attempts 4–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJohns – Heiskanen9:57
xG 0.79–0.28 (74%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
- Oleksiak – Heiskanen6:39
xG 0.74–0.35 (68%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Johns – Lindell6:30
xG 0.44–0.08 (84%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).