Thu, Feb 20, 2020·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Winnipeg Jets 5, Ottawa Senators 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 212 | 211 | 111 | 534 |
| OTT | 111 | 012 | 07 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:50OTTNick PaulUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 16:35WPGMark ScheifelePPAssists: Kyle Connor, Patrik Laine · Snap, 0.28 xG1–1
- P1 17:46WPGMark ScheifelePPGWGAssists: Neal Pionk, Patrik Laine · Deflected, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 4:52WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Neal Pionk, Andrew Copp · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–1
- P2 5:54WPGNikolaj EhlersAssists: Blake Wheeler, Mark Scheifele · Backhand, 0.14 xG4–1
- P3 18:27WPGMark ScheifelePPAssists: Logan Shaw, Josh Morrissey · Wrist, 0.08 xG5–1
Penalties (19)
- P1 15:32OTTChris Tierney: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 16:57OTTJayce Hawryluk: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 17:51OTTDrake Batherson: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:51WPGJansen Harkins: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:00WPGJosh Morrissey: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:41WPGNeal Pionk: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:43OTTJean-Gabriel Pageau: Interference2 min
- P3 0:54WPGDmitry Kulikov: Holding2 min
- P3 6:15OTTAnthony Duclair: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:27WPGPatrik Laine: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:23OTTBrady Tkachuk: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 11:23OTTScott Sabourin: Misconduct10 min
- P3 17:28OTTBrady Tkachuk: Misconduct10 min
- P3 17:28OTTBrady Tkachuk: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 17:28OTTBrady Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:28WPGTucker Poolman: Misconduct10 min
- P3 17:28WPGTucker Poolman: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:28OTTJean-Gabriel Pageau: Misconduct10 min
- P3 17:28WPGMason Appleton: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against Tkachuk
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Scheifele – Ehlers10:47
xG 0.70–0.23 (76%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
- Harkins – Roslovic – Appleton6:15
xG 0.16–0.10 (62%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Bourque – Shaw – Shore7:32
xG 0.03–0.04 (43%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Copp – Connor – Laine9:51
xG 0.55–0.62 (47%)attempts 10–17goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPoolman – Morrissey13:09
xG 0.97–0.65 (60%)attempts 17–20goals 1–1
- Kulikov – Pionk11:41
xG 0.44–0.35 (56%)attempts 10–14goals 1–0
- DeMelo – Beaulieu13:51
xG 0.11–0.20 (35%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestEnnis – Hawryluk – White5:55
xG 0.24–0.03 (89%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Pageau – Batherson – Tkachuk7:10
xG 0.44–0.33 (57%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
- Anisimov – Sabourin – Paul5:12
xG 0.22–0.12 (65%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Ennis – White – Batherson3:03
xG 0.03–0.03 (45%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoloubef – Chabot2:42
xG 0.14–0.06 (69%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Reilly – Zaitsev12:04
xG 0.48–0.53 (47%)attempts 18–9goals 0–1
- Goloubef – Englund9:16
xG 0.14–0.23 (39%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).