Thu, Feb 20, 2020·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Arizona Coyotes 0, St. Louis Blues 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 08 | 04 | 02 | 014 |
| STL | 09 | 019 | 118 | 146 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 12:00STLRyan O'ReillyGWGAssists: Brayden Schenn, Colton Parayko · Backhand, 0.10 xG0–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:11ARILawson Crouse: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:31STLJustin Faulk: Holding2 min
- P1 9:38STLOskar Sundqvist: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:54ARIJordan Oesterle: Cross checking2 min
- P2 16:31STLAlex Pietrangelo: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:26ARIConor Garland: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stepan won the faceoff against Barbashev
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- Hall – Dvorak – Garland10:34
xG 0.33–0.48 (40%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
- Richardson – Fischer – Crouse7:56
xG 0.08–0.39 (17%)attempts 3–13goals 0–1
- Soderberg – Kessel – Hayton8:20
xG 0.27–0.61 (30%)attempts 5–14goals 0–0
- Stepan – Schmaltz – Keller11:55
xG 0.36–0.95 (27%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Ness – Lyubushkin10:09
xG 0.08–0.61 (12%)attempts 4–17goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Ekman-Larsson17:05
xG 0.76–1.29 (37%)attempts 18–23goals 0–0
- Hjalmarsson – Oesterle15:36
xG 0.16–0.81 (16%)attempts 6–20goals 0–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSundqvist – Barbashev – Blais11:58
xG 0.97–0.34 (74%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
- Steen – Bozak – Kyrou7:23
xG 0.58–0.09 (86%)attempts 17–3goals 0–0
- Perron – Sanford – Thomas10:19
xG 0.53–0.23 (69%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Schenn – Schwartz11:31
xG 0.57–0.43 (57%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Parayko12:34
xG 1.28–0.37 (78%)attempts 21–6goals 1–0
- Gunnarsson – Pietrangelo14:58
xG 0.72–0.28 (72%)attempts 18–11goals 0–0
- Faulk – Dunn11:46
xG 0.53–0.18 (75%)attempts 17–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).