Fri, Feb 21, 2020·United Center, Chicago
Nashville Predators 1, Chicago Blackhawks 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 010 | 120 | 010 | 03 | 143 |
| CHI | 012 | 09 | 116 | 11 | 238 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 14:56NSHMattias EkholmAssists: Rocco Grimaldi, Colin Blackwell · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P3 9:05CHIAlex DeBrincatPPAssists: Patrick Kane, Duncan Keith · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–1
- OT 4:02CHIAlex DeBrincatGWGAssists: Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.41 xG1–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 2:47NSHMatt Duchene: Slashing2 min
- P1 7:56CHISlater Koekkoek: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:14NSHFilip Forsberg: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P1 18:07NSHViktor Arvidsson: Cross checking2 min
- P2 12:25CHIDuncan Keith: Holding2 min
- P2 15:27CHISlater Koekkoek: Interference2 min
- P2 16:14CHIDuncan Keith: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:56CHISlater Koekkoek: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:27NSHRyan Johansen: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:38NSHFilip Forsberg: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Carpenter won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestTurris – Smith – Grimaldi9:33
xG 1.80–0.74 (71%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
- Duchene – Jarnkrok – Granlund6:28
xG 0.48–0.10 (83%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Watson – Blackwell – Sissons5:44
xG 0.23–0.17 (57%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Johansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson10:22
xG 0.27–0.24 (53%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Tinordi14:40
xG 1.76–1.00 (64%)attempts 17–16goals 1–0
- Hamhuis – Fabbro9:14
xG 0.77–0.20 (79%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Josi – Ellis15:24
xG 0.85–1.01 (46%)attempts 16–19goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestToews – Kane – Kubalik2:46
xG 0.23–0.09 (72%)attempts 3–1goals 0–1
- Toews – Kubalik – Caggiula9:17
xG 0.98–0.94 (51%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Highmore – Nylander – Kampf5:59
xG 0.45–0.61 (42%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Strome – DeBrincat – Dach8:18
xG 0.26–0.55 (33%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Murphy2:59
xG 0.51–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Murphy – Maatta4:49
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Maatta – Koekkoek2:35
xG 0.00–0.06 (6%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).