Sat, Feb 22, 2020·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Buffalo Sabres 5, Pittsburgh Penguins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 310 | 011 | 25 | 526 |
| PIT | 012 | 113 | 118 | 243 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:14BUFZemgus GirgensonsAssists: Kyle Okposo · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 6:48BUFSam ReinhartUnassisted · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–0
- P1 10:51BUFJack EichelPPGWGAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen, Sam Reinhart · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–0
- P2 11:10PITEvgeni MalkinUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–1
- P3 5:39BUFJeff SkinnerAssists: Marcus Johansson, Michael Frolik · Tip-in, 0.24 xG4–1
- P3 12:17BUFJack EichelPPAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Rasmus Ristolainen · Wrist, 0.07 xG5–1
- P3 17:57PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Patric Hornqvist · Wrist, 0.21 xG5–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 9:44PITEvgeni Malkin: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 15:52BUFColin Miller: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:24PITJustin Schultz: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:05BUFBrandon Montour: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:03PITEvgeni Malkin: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:03BUFCurtis Lazar: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:26PITBrandon Tanev: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larsson won the faceoff against Malkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – Larsson – Girgensons10:22
xG 0.74–0.17 (81%)attempts 12–3goals 1–0
- Johansson – Vesey – Sheary11:04
xG 1.27–0.99 (56%)attempts 11–16goals 0–0
- Reinhart – Olofsson – Eichel12:14
xG 0.50–0.62 (45%)attempts 9–17goals 1–0
- Frolik – Skinner – Lazar9:22
xG 0.18–0.75 (19%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Dahlin14:27
xG 1.36–0.78 (63%)attempts 19–12goals 0–1
- Ristolainen – Montour17:34
xG 0.92–0.71 (56%)attempts 12–20goals 2–0
- McCabe – Jokiharju13:59
xG 0.52–1.12 (32%)attempts 11–11goals 1–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – McCann – Simon2:49
xG 0.38–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Zucker – Blueger – Tanev5:23
xG 0.20–0.24 (46%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Malkin – Hornqvist – Rust10:07
xG 0.56–0.75 (43%)attempts 6–10goals 1–1
- Agozzino – Lafferty – Angello5:13
xG 0.02–0.30 (8%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Pettersson17:34
xG 1.58–0.66 (70%)attempts 21–11goals 1–1
- Trotman – Ruhwedel12:02
xG 0.51–1.03 (33%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Johnson – Letang18:38
xG 0.50–1.20 (29%)attempts 16–24goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).