Sat, Feb 22, 2020·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Montréal Canadiens 3, Ottawa Senators 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 215 | 114 | 08 | 337 |
| OTT | 08 | 012 | 010 | 030 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:13MTLMax DomiGWGAssists: Paul Byron · Backhand, 0.17 xG1–0
- P1 10:20MTLMax DomiUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–0
- P2 17:58MTLPaul ByronAssists: Ilya Kovalchuk · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–0
Penalties (14)
- P1 9:59OTTBrady Tkachuk: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:59MTLBrendan Gallagher: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:38OTTJayce Hawryluk: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:19OTTMike Reilly: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:09MTLBen Chiarot: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:09MTLCarey Price: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:09OTTBrady Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:54OTTScott Sabourin: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:54MTLBen Chiarot: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:35MTLMax Domi: Interference2 min
- P3 17:52OTTBrady Tkachuk: Cross checking2 min
- P3 17:52MTLNick Cousins: Misconduct10 min
- P3 17:52OTTBrady Tkachuk: Misconduct10 min
- P3 17:52MTLNick Cousins: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Pageau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestKovalchuk – Byron – Domi7:19
xG 0.67–0.04 (94%)attempts 10–6goals 3–0
- Armia – Drouin – Suzuki8:31
xG 0.63–0.05 (92%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Tatar – Gallagher – Danault10:13
xG 0.83–0.38 (69%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Thompson – Cousins – Lehkonen9:27
xG 0.48–0.13 (79%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Chiarot14:37
xG 1.10–0.61 (64%)attempts 16–23goals 0–0
- Alzner – Folin13:13
xG 0.77–0.29 (73%)attempts 16–7goals 1–0
- Petry – Kulak14:52
xG 0.73–0.26 (74%)attempts 19–7goals 2–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- Pageau – White – Tkachuk2:43
xG 0.21–0.18 (53%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Paul – Norris – Batherson3:19
xG 0.10–0.08 (57%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Anisimov – Sabourin – White2:27
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
- Tierney – Duclair – Hawryluk2:14
xG 0.05–0.19 (20%)attempts 1–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Hainsey – Jaros4:02
xG 0.00–0.16 (0%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Zaitsev6:42
xG 0.14–0.34 (29%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Reilly – Zaitsev17:39
xG 0.74–0.98 (43%)attempts 16–23goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).