Sat, Feb 22, 2020·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Colorado Avalanche 2, Los Angeles Kings 1 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 015 | 19 | 06 | 01 | 1 | 231 |
| LAK | 17 | 03 | 06 | 05 | 0 | 121 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:47LAKAustin WagnerUnassisted · Wrist, 0.26 xG0–1
- P2 16:35COLRyan GravesAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Ian Cole · Snap, 0.07 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. LAK Anze Kopitar stopped
- 2. COL Nathan MacKinnon stopped
- 3. LAK Martin Frk stopped
- 4. COL Gabriel Landeskog stopped
- 5. LAK Gabriel Vilardi stopped
- 6. COL Joonas Donskoi scored
Penalties (10)
- P1 4:47COLNikita Zadorov: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P1 6:39LAKAustin Wagner: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:47LAKDerek Forbort: Holding2 min
- P2 4:22LAKBen Hutton: Holding2 min
- P2 6:16COLCale Makar: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:27LAKGabriel Vilardi: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:33LAKDustin Brown: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:33COLCale Makar: Embellishment2 min
- P3 5:14LAKMartin Frk: Abusive language2 min
- OT 3:45COLJ.T. Compher: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Landeskog won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestNieto – Bellemare – Kaut7:11
xG 0.62–0.35 (64%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Compher – Nichushkin – Jost5:34
xG 0.30–0.17 (64%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Donskoi – Landeskog – MacKinnon6:37
xG 0.38–0.36 (51%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Kamenev – Dries – O'Connor4:30
xG 0.15–0.20 (43%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGraves – Makar12:59
xG 0.81–0.49 (62%)attempts 17–9goals 1–0
- Cole – Zadorov13:54
xG 0.57–0.31 (65%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Johnson – Girard13:37
xG 0.30–0.64 (32%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Kopitar – Iafallo12:48
xG 0.57–0.46 (55%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Wagner – Moore – Lizotte4:25
xG 0.18–0.07 (71%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Frk – Kempe – Vilardi9:02
xG 0.40–0.34 (54%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Lewis – Schaller – Amadio2:43
xG 0.15–0.16 (48%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHutton – Roy15:30
xG 0.48–0.28 (63%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
- Doughty – Forbort16:16
xG 0.67–0.65 (51%)attempts 12–17goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).