Tue, Feb 25, 2020·TD Garden, Boston
Calgary Flames 5, Boston Bruins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 17 | 213 | 211 | 531 |
| BOS | 09 | 112 | 17 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:35CGYMatthew TkachukAssists: Mikael Backlund, Noah Hanifin · Backhand, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 10:08BOSBrad MarchandSHAssists: Charlie McAvoy · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–1
- P2 13:25CGYSean MonahanAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Michael Stone · Snap, 0.17 xG2–1
- P2 14:37CGYSean MonahanPPGWGAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Erik Gustafsson · Deflected, 0.09 xG3–1
- P3 13:09BOSChris WagnerAssists: Sean Kuraly, Par Lindholm · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–2
- P3 18:30CGYMikael BacklundUnassisted · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–2
- P3 19:11CGYMikael BacklundENAssists: Matthew Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.67 xG5–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 6:44CGYTJ Brodie: Interference2 min
- P1 14:50BOSBrad Marchand: Interference2 min
- P2 8:46BOSKarson Kuhlman: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:32BOSMatt Grzelcyk: Roughing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Coyle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Mangiapane – Tkachuk14:02
xG 0.57–0.07 (89%)attempts 14–7goals 2–0
- Gaudreau – Lindholm – Monahan12:36
xG 0.85–0.43 (66%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0
- Rieder – Jankowski – Bennett9:30
xG 0.29–0.33 (47%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Lucic – Ryan – Dube9:49
xG 0.16–0.58 (21%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestForbort – Gustafsson16:36
xG 0.33–0.27 (56%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Stone – Brodie15:26
xG 0.90–0.87 (51%)attempts 11–21goals 1–0
- Brodie – Andersson2:13
xG 0.04–0.13 (22%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKrejci – Ritchie – Kuhlman5:45
xG 0.30–0.08 (78%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Wagner – Kuraly – Lindholm10:37
xG 0.55–0.46 (54%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Krejci – DeBrusk – Kuhlman5:42
xG 0.16–0.11 (59%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak12:40
xG 0.51–0.52 (50%)attempts 19–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKrug – Carlo14:15
xG 0.67–0.44 (61%)attempts 18–11goals 1–1
- Grzelcyk – Lauzon12:31
xG 0.42–0.36 (54%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Krug – McAvoy2:59
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).