Thu, Feb 27, 2020·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Toronto Maple Leafs 5, Florida Panthers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 39 | 014 | 26 | 529 |
| FLA | 39 | 04 | 014 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:23FLAMark PysykAssists: Aaron Ekblad, Keith Yandle · Slap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 3:32TORZach HymanAssists: Auston Matthews, Justin Holl · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–1
- P1 7:25FLAMike HoffmanAssists: Frank Vatrano, Erik Haula · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P1 12:36FLANoel AcciariAssists: Keith Yandle · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–3
- P1 17:43TORKasperi KapanenAssists: Jason Spezza, Alexander Kerfoot · Snap, 0.02 xG2–3
- P1 18:58TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Zach Hyman, Mitch Marner · Slap, 0.16 xG3–3
- P3 9:00TORWilliam NylanderGWGAssists: Kyle Clifford, Martin Marincin · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–3
- P3 19:39TORJustin HollENAssists: John Tavares · Wrist, 0.48 xG5–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 15:42FLAAleksi Saarela: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 0:00FLAMacKenzie Weegar: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:00TORKasperi Kapanen: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:24TORMartin Marincin: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Kerfoot – Nylander3:28
xG 0.25–0.03 (90%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Hyman – Marner – Matthews16:17
xG 0.69–0.56 (55%)attempts 12–20goals 2–0
- Clifford – Gauthier – Engvall2:23
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Tavares – Nylander – Kapanen2:07
xG 0.09–0.10 (49%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBarrie – Sandin11:00
xG 0.43–0.05 (89%)attempts 12–3goals 0–1
- Holl – Dermott14:16
xG 0.55–0.38 (59%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Barrie – Marincin8:35
xG 0.40–0.23 (63%)attempts 6–11goals 1–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- Connolly – Wallmark – Saarela9:53
xG 0.11–0.13 (47%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Haula – Vatrano8:43
xG 0.34–0.55 (38%)attempts 10–14goals 1–2
- Dadonov – Huberdeau – Barkov13:56
xG 0.31–0.86 (27%)attempts 12–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Matheson10:35
xG 0.30–0.16 (66%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Matheson – Ekblad3:27
xG 0.06–0.05 (56%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Weegar – Ekblad12:14
xG 0.37–0.44 (46%)attempts 11–14goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).