Thu, Feb 27, 2020·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Calgary Flames 3, Nashville Predators 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 011 | 216 | 112 | 00 | 339 |
| NSH | 18 | 017 | 211 | 12 | 438 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:28NSHColton SissonsAssists: Colin Blackwell, Jarred Tinordi · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 0:26CGYRasmus AnderssonAssists: Mikael Backlund, Matthew Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
- P2 3:48CGYMikael BacklundUnassisted · Deflected, 0.01 xG2–1
- P3 14:30NSHRoman JosiAssists: Ryan Ellis, Colin Blackwell · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- P3 19:17CGYAndrew MangiapaneAssists: Mikael Backlund, Rasmus Andersson · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 19:59NSHMikael GranlundAssists: Filip Forsberg, Ryan Ellis · Wrist, 0.28 xG3–3
- OT 1:20NSHMikael GranlundGWGAssists: Ryan Ellis, Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 8:11CGYSam Bennett: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:56NSHRoman Josi: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:56CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:40CGYSam Bennett: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Mangiapane – Tkachuk14:47
xG 1.09–0.26 (81%)attempts 22–8goals 3–1
- Rieder – Jankowski – Bennett9:06
xG 0.51–0.42 (55%)attempts 7–17goals 0–0
- Lucic – Ryan – Dube10:43
xG 0.57–0.52 (52%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Lindholm – Monahan12:43
xG 0.59–0.78 (43%)attempts 11–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHanifin – Andersson12:00
xG 1.35–0.37 (78%)attempts 16–11goals 2–0
- Forbort – Gustafsson13:39
xG 0.95–0.80 (54%)attempts 15–22goals 1–2
- Gustafsson – Hanifin2:01
xG 0.14–0.11 (56%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestTurris – Granlund – Forsberg12:47
xG 0.44–0.21 (68%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Johansen – Blackwell – Sissons9:12
xG 0.16–0.32 (34%)attempts 8–6goals 1–2
- Bonino – Smith – Grimaldi9:35
xG 0.36–0.74 (33%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Duchene – Jarnkrok – Arvidsson11:15
xG 0.63–1.13 (36%)attempts 14–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Fabbro8:12
xG 0.54–0.18 (75%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Josi – Ellis19:01
xG 0.80–1.04 (44%)attempts 25–19goals 1–2
- Ekholm – Tinordi11:05
xG 0.46–0.71 (39%)attempts 8–17goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).