Fri, Feb 28, 2020·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Colorado Avalanche 3, Carolina Hurricanes 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 112 | 112 | 18 | 332 |
| CAR | 013 | 018 | 216 | 247 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:34COLTyson JostAssists: Erik Johnson, Samuel Girard · Snap, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 12:51COLTyson JostAssists: Cale Makar · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–0
- P3 5:54CARTeuvo TeravainenAssists: Sebastian Aho, Brady Skjei · Slap, 0.02 xG2–1
- P3 7:55CARTeuvo TeravainenAssists: Jaccob Slavin, Sebastian Aho · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 17:23COLSamuel GirardGWGAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Vladislav Namestnikov · Snap, 0.11 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:54CARJordan Martinook: High sticking2 min
- P1 16:46COLJoonas Donskoi: High sticking2 min
- P2 4:35COLNikita Zadorov: Cross checking2 min
- P2 9:24CARAndrei Svechnikov: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:35CARJustin Williams: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 3:04COLNikita Zadorov: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Aho won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLandeskog – Namestnikov – MacKinnon3:24
xG 0.39–0.03 (93%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Landeskog – Burakovsky – MacKinnon7:17
xG 0.50–0.39 (56%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Nichushkin – Bellemare – Kaut4:38
xG 0.20–0.15 (58%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Donskoi – Compher – Jost7:29
xG 0.42–0.38 (53%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGraves – Makar12:41
xG 1.06–0.48 (69%)attempts 11–17goals 1–0
- Girard – Makar3:12
xG 0.07–0.15 (34%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Cole – Zadorov11:31
xG 0.35–0.43 (45%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestTeravainen – Aho – Svechnikov11:31
xG 0.65–0.26 (72%)attempts 19–6goals 1–0
- Dzingel – Martinook – McGinn6:42
xG 0.35–0.16 (68%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Williams – Staal – Foegele8:58
xG 0.41–0.56 (43%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Niederreiter – Trocheck – Necas10:26
xG 0.22–0.52 (30%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Edmundson – Slavin17:32
xG 0.87–0.89 (50%)attempts 23–15goals 0–1
- Gardiner – van Riemsdyk9:11
xG 0.08–0.28 (22%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Skjei – Fleury16:04
xG 0.98–1.26 (44%)attempts 24–19goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).