Sun, Mar 1, 2020·Madison Square Garden, New York
Philadelphia Flyers 5, New York Rangers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 313 | 27 | 06 | 526 |
| NYR | 09 | 15 | 212 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:52PHIMatt NiskanenPPAssists: Nicolas Aube-Kubel, Travis Sanheim · Wrist, 0.33 xG1–0
- P1 11:19PHISean CouturierPPAssists: Jakub Voracek, Travis Konecny · Wrist, 0.31 xG2–0
- P1 17:53PHIMichael RafflSHAssists: Derek Grant · Backhand, 0.21 xG3–0
- P2 1:23PHIDerek GrantGWGAssists: Tyler Pitlick, Travis Sanheim · Backhand, 0.20 xG4–0
- P2 12:34NYRMika ZibanejadPPAssists: Artemi Panarin, Tony DeAngelo · Tip-in, 0.09 xG4–1
- P2 15:34PHITravis KonecnyPPAssists: Jakub Voracek, Ivan Provorov · Tip-in, 0.18 xG5–1
- P3 5:33NYRPavel BuchnevichPPAssists: Tony DeAngelo, Mika Zibanejad · Tip-in, 0.15 xG5–2
- P3 12:39NYRMika ZibanejadPPAssists: Artemi Panarin, Brett Howden · Backhand, 0.16 xG5–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 0:23NYRRyan Lindgren: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 5:36PHIScott Laughton: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:46NYRRyan Strome: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 16:16PHIKevin Hayes: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:39NYRBrendan Lemieux: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 8:39NYRBrendan Lemieux: Misconduct10 min
- P2 12:17PHINate Thompson: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 13:20PHITravis Sanheim: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:29NYRRyan Strome: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 17:13NYRBrett Howden: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:21PHIMatt Niskanen: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 11:29PHINate Thompson: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hayes won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestThompson – Raffl – Aube-Kubel7:28
xG 0.38–0.05 (89%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Couturier7:55
xG 0.51–0.21 (71%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Grant – Pitlick8:35
xG 0.68–0.78 (46%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
- Hayes – Laughton – Konecny9:38
xG 0.19–0.56 (25%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBraun – Hagg11:38
xG 0.35–0.08 (81%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Sanheim – Myers13:52
xG 1.10–0.89 (55%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
- Niskanen – Provorov12:32
xG 0.36–1.41 (21%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestZibanejad – Buchnevich – Panarin3:48
xG 0.80–0.00 (99%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Fast – Strome – Panarin4:54
xG 0.15–0.10 (59%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Fast – Di Giuseppe – Chytil3:43
xG 0.36–0.34 (52%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- McKegg – Lemieux – Gauthier3:48
xG 0.12–0.12 (50%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeAngelo – Fox6:25
xG 0.31–0.00 (99%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Smith – Trouba10:35
xG 0.85–0.66 (56%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Staal – DeAngelo9:29
xG 0.24–0.52 (31%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).