Sun, Mar 1, 2020·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Washington Capitals 4, Minnesota Wild 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 311 | 09 | 110 | 430 |
| MIN | 215 | 08 | 117 | 340 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:01MINRyan DonatoAssists: Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 7:21WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: John Carlson, Nicklas Backstrom · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P1 10:28WSHRichard PanikAssists: Carl Hagelin · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P1 10:59WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Ilya Kovalchuk · Slap, 0.06 xG3–1
- P1 13:13MINKevin FialaPPAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Brad Hunt · Slap, 0.04 xG3–2
- P3 0:40WSHTom WilsonGWGAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–2
- P3 12:53MINZach ParisePPAssists: Kevin Fiala · Wrist, 0.34 xG4–3
Penalties (14)
- P1 5:29MINGreg Pateryn: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 6:12MINAlex Stalock: High sticking2 min
- P1 11:56WSHNicklas Backstrom: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 18:57MINRyan Hartman: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:57WSHBrenden Dillon: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:57MINRyan Hartman: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:57WSHIlya Kovalchuk: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:57WSHIlya Kovalchuk: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:31WSHGarnet Hathaway: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:31MINJordan Greenway: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:31WSHRichard Panik: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:31MINRyan Suter: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:46WSHJohn Carlson: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:40WSHMichal Kempny: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestHagelin – Eller – Panik3:09
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 1–0
- Panik – Dowd – Hathaway4:40
xG 0.32–0.15 (69%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
- Kovalchuk – Hagelin – Eller6:52
xG 0.33–0.20 (63%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Kovalchuk – Ovechkin – Kuznetsov3:10
xG 0.11–0.07 (62%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – Siegenthaler5:17
xG 0.51–0.14 (78%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Carlson – Dillon17:35
xG 0.50–0.31 (62%)attempts 13–13goals 2–0
- Jensen – Kempny3:19
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Hartman – Donato5:07
xG 0.36–0.17 (68%)attempts 8–4goals 1–1
- Foligno – Zuccarello – Galchenyuk8:20
xG 0.37–0.35 (52%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Foligno – Greenway – Eriksson Ek2:37
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Staal – Parise – Fiala2:10
xG 0.03–0.03 (57%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Dumba13:55
xG 0.58–0.37 (61%)attempts 12–9goals 0–2
- Hunt – Dumba4:07
xG 0.21–0.06 (78%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Suter – Spurgeon16:04
xG 0.41–0.55 (43%)attempts 16–14goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).