Wed, Mar 4, 2020·Capital One Arena, Washington
Philadelphia Flyers 5, Washington Capitals 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 07 | 318 | 24 | 529 |
| WSH | 17 | 18 | 012 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:09WSHLars EllerAssists: Richard Panik, Carl Hagelin · Snap, 0.17 xG0–1
- P2 7:06PHITravis KonecnyPPAssists: Ivan Provorov, Claude Giroux · Snap, 0.60 xG1–1
- P2 14:48PHIKevin HayesAssists: Derek Grant, Nicolas Aube-Kubel · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–1
- P2 17:05PHITyler PitlickGWGAssists: Michael Raffl, Derek Grant · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–1
- P2 18:32WSHGarnet HathawayAssists: Tom Wilson, Nic Dowd · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–2
- P3 6:36PHIIvan ProvorovAssists: Jakub Voracek · Snap, 0.10 xG4–2
- P3 14:15PHIScott LaughtonAssists: Kevin Hayes · Wrist, 0.02 xG5–2
Penalties (14)
- P1 1:08PHIScott Laughton: Interference2 min
- P1 11:55PHIJustin Braun: Holding2 min
- P1 17:05WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:05WSHTom Wilson: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:05PHINate Thompson: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:37PHIKevin Hayes: Interference2 min
- P2 1:17WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:46WSHJakub Vrana: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 5:34WSHGarnet Hathaway: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 12:42WSHBrenden Dillon: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:45PHIRobert Hagg: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:45WSHTom Wilson: Fighting5 min
- P3 3:15PHIMichael Raffl: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:49PHIScott Laughton: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Kuznetsov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestHayes – Laughton – Konecny8:30
xG 0.49–0.26 (65%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Thompson – Raffl – Aube-Kubel6:46
xG 0.40–0.22 (65%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Grant – Pitlick – Raffl3:06
xG 0.15–0.05 (74%)attempts 1–3goals 1–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Couturier9:28
xG 0.38–0.31 (56%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Provorov11:11
xG 0.63–0.35 (64%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Sanheim – Myers14:28
xG 0.78–0.59 (57%)attempts 17–17goals 2–1
- Braun – Hagg10:41
xG 0.10–0.55 (15%)attempts 5–12goals 0–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestHagelin – Eller – Panik2:49
xG 0.24–0.02 (92%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Oshie – Eller – Vrana3:12
xG 0.35–0.15 (70%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Panik – Dowd – Hathaway2:05
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Wilson4:29
xG 0.25–0.21 (55%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – Siegenthaler7:04
xG 0.30–0.21 (58%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Carlson – Dillon10:40
xG 0.42–0.41 (51%)attempts 12–6goals 0–1
- Carlson – Orlov2:40
xG 0.05–0.07 (43%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).