Wed, Mar 4, 2020·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Arizona Coyotes 4, Vancouver Canucks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 116 | 013 | 311 | 440 |
| VAN | 012 | 015 | 211 | 238 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:27ARICarl SoderbergPPUnassisted · Deflected, 0.03 xG1–0
- P3 3:19VANTyler ToffoliPPAssists: J.T. Miller, Quinn Hughes · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P3 6:16VANTanner PearsonAssists: Jake Virtanen · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–2
- P3 10:10ARINick SchmaltzAssists: Carl Soderberg · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–2
- P3 12:39ARILawson CrouseGWGAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Vinnie Hinostroza · Deflected, 0.10 xG3–2
- P3 19:25ARIOliver Ekman-LarssonENAssists: Niklas Hjalmarsson, Derek Stepan · Wrist, 0.45 xG4–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:39VANQuinn Hughes: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 9:08VANZack MacEwen: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 2:57ARIJason Demers: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:49VANTyler Toffoli: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:26ARIAlex Goligoski: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:05ARIClayton Keller: Roughing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Dvorak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestRichardson – Soderberg – Schmaltz9:00
xG 1.25–0.44 (74%)attempts 17–9goals 1–0
- Richardson – Soderberg – Kessel2:01
xG 0.12–0.11 (54%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Kessel – Garland – Hayton7:31
xG 0.18–0.19 (49%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Stepan – Hinostroza – Crouse9:12
xG 0.26–0.40 (40%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – Lyubushkin15:23
xG 1.06–0.43 (71%)attempts 16–12goals 2–0
- Goligoski – Hjalmarsson14:49
xG 0.62–0.72 (46%)attempts 14–18goals 0–0
- Demers – Oesterle10:36
xG 0.42–0.88 (33%)attempts 15–14goals 0–1
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestPearson – Horvat – Virtanen10:21
xG 0.75–0.36 (68%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Toffoli – Miller – Pettersson13:14
xG 0.56–0.45 (56%)attempts 14–16goals 0–0
- Eriksson – Pearson – Horvat3:06
xG 0.13–0.07 (66%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Eriksson – Sutter – Motte6:20
xG 0.17–0.21 (45%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBenn – Fantenberg11:09
xG 0.55–0.13 (81%)attempts 13–6goals 0–1
- Tanev – Hughes13:00
xG 0.41–0.34 (55%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Edler – Hughes4:18
xG 0.09–0.04 (70%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).