Thu, Mar 5, 2020·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
New York Islanders 3, Ottawa Senators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 111 | 117 | 112 | 340 |
| OTT | 113 | 27 | 19 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:58NYIAnders LeePPAssists: Mathew Barzal, Derick Brassard · Snap, 0.36 xG1–0
- P1 13:57OTTConnor BrownAssists: Nikita Zaitsev, Mike Reilly · Wrist, 0.32 xG1–1
- P2 4:18NYIMathew BarzalAssists: Jordan Eberle, Devon Toews · Snap, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 10:00OTTMikkel BoedkerSHAssists: Chris Tierney · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–2
- P2 14:26OTTAnthony DuclairAssists: Jayce Hawryluk, Colin White · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–3
- P3 16:55OTTBrady TkachukGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–4
- P3 18:00NYIRyan PulockAssists: Mathew Barzal, Devon Toews · Slap, 0.04 xG3–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:07OTTBobby Ryan: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 6:14NYIDevon Toews: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:51NYINoah Dobson: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:35OTTBrady Tkachuk: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 9:02OTTJayce Hawryluk: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:48OTTColin White: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:22NYIAndy Greene: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Paul won the faceoff against Pageau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Lee – Barzal14:13
xG 1.17–1.00 (54%)attempts 22–13goals 1–1
- Bailey – Pageau – Beauvillier7:58
xG 0.38–0.29 (57%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Koivula3:26
xG 0.05–0.05 (49%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Brassard – Nelson – Dal Colle7:43
xG 0.06–0.28 (18%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLeddy – Mayfield4:58
xG 0.53–0.22 (71%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Leddy – Toews2:07
xG 0.16–0.04 (79%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
- Leddy – Dobson2:21
xG 0.13–0.01 (92%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestDuclair – Paul – Hawryluk5:36
xG 0.36–0.10 (78%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Tierney – Brown – Tkachuk10:59
xG 0.85–0.71 (54%)attempts 15–14goals 2–0
- Ryan – Duclair – White2:09
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Boedker – Peca – Sabourin3:19
xG 0.03–0.11 (24%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Chabot19:39
xG 1.17–0.78 (60%)attempts 22–16goals 1–1
- Englund – Jaros5:44
xG 0.22–0.15 (59%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Reilly – Zaitsev13:19
xG 0.65–0.73 (47%)attempts 10–16goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).