Thu, Mar 5, 2020·United Center, Chicago
Edmonton Oilers 3, Chicago Blackhawks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 08 | 14 | 212 | 324 |
| CHI | 111 | 314 | 06 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:34CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Dylan Strome, Alex Nylander · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 0:47CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Dominik Kubalik, Adam Boqvist · Wrap-around, 0.09 xG0–2
- P2 4:59CHIAlex DeBrincatAssists: Adam Boqvist, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–3
- P2 5:59EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Darnell Nurse · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–3
- P2 13:02CHIAlex DeBrincatGWGAssists: Olli Maatta, Kirby Dach · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–4
- P3 8:03EDMJosh ArchibaldAssists: Zack Kassian · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–4
- P3 8:52EDMKailer YamamotoAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Darnell Nurse · Snap, 0.20 xG3–4
Penalties (3)
- P1 11:17CHIRyan Carpenter: Holding2 min
- P1 16:35EDMTyler Ennis: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:52EDMTyler Ennis: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestNugent-Hopkins – Draisaitl – Yamamoto11:49
xG 0.85–0.28 (75%)attempts 13–7goals 2–0
- Kassian – Sheahan – Archibald8:22
xG 0.59–0.28 (68%)attempts 8–8goals 1–1
- Ennis – Chiasson – Khaira6:04
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Chiasson – Khaira – Athanasiou4:29
xG 0.06–0.17 (27%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRussell – Benning12:12
xG 0.43–0.21 (67%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Nurse – Bear20:39
xG 1.19–1.11 (52%)attempts 18–20goals 2–2
- Larsson – Jones14:37
xG 0.30–0.66 (31%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestDeBrincat – Caggiula – Dach10:13
xG 0.75–0.19 (80%)attempts 15–7goals 2–0
- Toews – Saad – Kubalik11:11
xG 0.73–0.41 (64%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Kane – Strome – Nylander13:27
xG 0.47–0.41 (53%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Carpenter – Highmore – Kampf9:01
xG 0.29–0.46 (39%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Boqvist12:41
xG 0.62–0.26 (70%)attempts 11–5goals 3–0
- Maatta – Koekkoek15:32
xG 1.01–0.69 (59%)attempts 13–12goals 1–1
- Keith – Murphy9:19
xG 0.26–0.22 (54%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).