Fri, Mar 6, 2020·Honda Center, Anaheim
Toronto Maple Leafs 1, Anaheim Ducks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 08 | 08 | 115 | 131 |
| ANA | 113 | 013 | 12 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:17ANACarter RowneyAssists: David Backes, Michael Del Zotto · Wrist, 0.25 xG0–1
- P3 10:20ANAAdam HenriqueGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–2
- P3 17:00TORWilliam NylanderUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 11:38ANAJohn Gibson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 7:48TORJustin Holl: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:40ANANicolas Deslauriers: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:40TORKyle Clifford: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:38TORMitch Marner: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:25ANADavid Backes: Boarding2 min
- P3 11:45ANAKiefer Sherwood: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Henrique won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKerfoot – Kapanen – Engvall8:50
xG 0.62–0.01 (98%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Spezza – Kerfoot – Kapanen2:03
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Tavares – Nylander – Malgin12:15
xG 0.52–0.68 (43%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Hyman – Marner – Matthews13:10
xG 0.14–0.49 (22%)attempts 9–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBarrie – Rosen11:29
xG 0.82–0.48 (63%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Marincin – Ceci6:26
xG 0.25–0.12 (67%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Holl – Dermott16:40
xG 0.30–0.56 (35%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Milano – Heinen12:24
xG 0.91–0.37 (71%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Backes – Deslauriers – Rowney4:21
xG 0.48–0.11 (82%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Henrique – Silfverberg – Rakell12:53
xG 0.29–0.17 (62%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Agozzino – Steel – Sherwood9:41
xG 0.40–0.38 (51%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDel Zotto – Larsson14:18
xG 0.80–0.31 (72%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
- Irwin – Guhle12:49
xG 0.66–0.47 (58%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Hakanpää – Djoos15:40
xG 0.34–0.29 (54%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).