Sat, Mar 7, 2020·TD Garden, Boston
Tampa Bay Lightning 5, Boston Bruins 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 25 | 110 | 210 | 525 |
| BOS | 014 | 212 | 112 | 338 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:08TBLAnthony CirelliSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 6:10TBLMikhail SergachevSHAssists: Yanni Gourde · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–0
- P2 6:50TBLCedric PaquetteAssists: Zach Bogosian, Braydon Coburn · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–0
- P2 14:50BOSCharlie McAvoyAssists: Charlie Coyle, Matt Grzelcyk · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–1
- P2 18:37BOSSean KuralyAssists: Charlie McAvoy, Ondrej Kase · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–2
- P3 1:08TBLAlex KillornPPGWGAssists: Mikhail Sergachev, Brayden Point · Tip-in, 0.16 xG4–2
- P3 6:37BOSDavid PastrnakPPAssists: Torey Krug, Brad Marchand · Slap, 0.03 xG4–3
- P3 18:58TBLNikita KucherovENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.63 xG5–3
Penalties (26)
- P1 5:01TBLBarclay Goodrow: Elbowing2 min
- P1 8:39BOSChris Wagner: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 8:39TBLBarclay Goodrow: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 10:45BOSChris Wagner: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:45TBLBarclay Goodrow: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:20TBLBraydon Coburn: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:14BOSJeremy Lauzon: Interference2 min
- P2 14:13TBLAnthony Cirelli: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:13BOSBrad Marchand: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:37TBLErik Cernak: Misconduct10 min
- P2 18:37TBLPatrick Maroon: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:37TBLOndrej Palat: Game misconduct team staff0 min
- P2 18:37BOSZdeno Chara: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 18:37BOSSean Kuraly: Misconduct10 min
- P2 18:37TBLOndrej Palat: Delaying game bench2 min
- P2 0:00BOSBrad Marchand: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:00TBLBlake Coleman: Misconduct10 min
- P2 0:00BOSNick Ritchie: Misconduct10 min
- P3 5:48TBLNikita Kucherov: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 8:43BOSTorey Krug: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:43BOSPatrice Bergeron: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 8:43BOSPatrice Bergeron: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:43TBLMitchell Stephens: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:43TBLBarclay Goodrow: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:10TBLTyler Johnson: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:10BOSOndrej Kase: Embellishment2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Paquette won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestMaroon – Gourde – Paquette6:10
xG 0.28–0.09 (75%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- Killorn – Coleman – Cirelli4:55
xG 0.11–0.12 (49%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Johnson – Goodrow – Stephens5:25
xG 0.06–0.07 (44%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Palat – Kucherov – Point6:47
xG 0.10–0.95 (10%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCoburn – Shattenkirk5:03
xG 0.31–0.04 (89%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Coburn – Bogosian5:55
xG 0.29–0.19 (60%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Coburn – Sergachev2:19
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestCoyle – Kuraly – DeBrusk4:49
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak6:58
xG 0.27–0.15 (64%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
- Krejci – Ritchie – DeBrusk2:10
xG 0.18–0.07 (70%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Wagner – Nordstrom – Lindholm5:05
xG 0.05–0.09 (35%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – McAvoy9:17
xG 1.01–0.28 (78%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Moore – Krug10:56
xG 0.36–0.15 (70%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Krug – McAvoy2:20
xG 0.20–0.04 (85%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).