Sat, Mar 7, 2020·Madison Square Garden, New York
New Jersey Devils 6, New York Rangers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 112 | 411 | 16 | 629 |
| NYR | 212 | 014 | 29 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:34NYRFilip ChytilAssists: Julien Gauthier, Adam Fox · Snap, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 6:22NJDKyle PalmieriAssists: Dakota Mermis, Damon Severson · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P1 7:18NYRMika ZibanejadAssists: Adam Fox, Pavel Buchnevich · Slap, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 0:44NJDKyle PalmieriAssists: Miles Wood, Dakota Mermis · Slap, 0.31 xG2–2
- P2 1:36NJDFredrik ClaessonAssists: Nikita Gusev · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–2
- P2 16:19NJDTravis ZajacPPAssists: Nico Hischier, P.K. Subban · Snap, 0.19 xG4–2
- P2 16:44NJDJohn HaydenGWGAssists: Damon Severson · Tip-in, 0.14 xG5–2
- P3 13:42NYRGreg McKeggAssists: Brendan Smith, Pavel Buchnevich · Wrist, 0.18 xG5–3
- P3 19:04NJDTravis ZajacENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.64 xG6–3
- P3 19:17NYRTony DeAngeloAssists: Greg McKegg, Brett Howden · Deflected, 0.05 xG6–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 11:14NJDNico Hischier: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 15:31NJDDamon Severson: Cross checking2 min
- P2 3:29NJDMichael McLeod: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:46NYRAdam Fox: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestHayden – Rooney – McLeod7:30
xG 0.94–0.04 (96%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Gusev – Zacha – Bratt11:24
xG 0.73–0.57 (56%)attempts 16–13goals 1–2
- Palmieri – Wood – Hischier11:17
xG 0.87–0.75 (54%)attempts 9–14goals 1–1
- Zajac – Anderson – Hughes10:14
xG 0.33–0.38 (47%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeverson – Mermis13:53
xG 1.64–0.69 (70%)attempts 20–14goals 3–1
- Claesson – Carrick10:55
xG 0.59–0.58 (50%)attempts 14–15goals 1–2
- Severson – Carrick2:01
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestFast – Strome – Panarin7:18
xG 0.75–0.31 (71%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Fast – Zibanejad – Panarin2:09
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- McKegg – Lemieux – Kakko2:41
xG 0.01–0.06 (17%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Fast – Strome – Howden2:14
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSmith – Trouba12:51
xG 0.73–0.46 (61%)attempts 17–14goals 1–1
- DeAngelo – Fox4:24
xG 0.47–0.51 (48%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Staal – Lindgren3:31
xG 0.01–0.17 (5%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).