Sat, Mar 7, 2020·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Buffalo Sabres 1, Philadelphia Flyers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 013 | 111 | 015 | 139 |
| PHI | 04 | 110 | 210 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 10:04PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Jakub Voracek, Travis Sanheim · Backhand, 0.16 xG0–1
- P2 16:54BUFDominik KahunAssists: Victor Olofsson, Marcus Johansson · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–1
- P3 9:28PHIClaude GirouxGWGAssists: Jakub Voracek, Travis Sanheim · Snap, 0.12 xG1–2
- P3 14:49PHIJoel FarabeeUnassisted · Wrist, 0.30 xG1–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:51PHITravis Sanheim: Tripping2 min
- P1 7:36BUFBrandon Montour: Slashing2 min
- P1 9:46BUFColin Miller: Holding2 min
- P3 1:43PHIScott Laughton: Cross checking2 min
- P3 6:36PHIPhilippe Myers: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:09PHIScott Laughton: Cross checking2 min
- P3 19:39BUFRasmus Ristolainen: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestJohansson – Olofsson – Kahun10:47
xG 0.68–0.21 (76%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Skinner – Reinhart – Eichel12:09
xG 1.31–1.01 (57%)attempts 17–8goals 0–1
- Okposo – Larsson – Girgensons7:49
xG 0.05–0.17 (21%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Frolik – Simmonds – Lazar6:02
xG 0.03–0.19 (14%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Dahlin13:00
xG 1.04–0.42 (71%)attempts 20–5goals 0–0
- McCabe – Jokiharju12:08
xG 0.53–0.54 (50%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
- Ristolainen – Montour14:40
xG 0.47–1.52 (24%)attempts 11–13goals 1–2
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Voracek – Couturier13:07
xG 1.34–0.84 (62%)attempts 12–10goals 2–1
- Hayes – Konecny – Farabee9:33
xG 0.35–0.37 (49%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Thompson – Raffl – Aube-Kubel8:01
xG 0.19–0.45 (30%)attempts 2–11goals 0–0
- Grant – Pitlick – Laughton7:21
xG 0.04–0.42 (8%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Provorov15:01
xG 0.71–0.56 (56%)attempts 5–14goals 1–0
- Sanheim – Myers12:24
xG 1.05–1.17 (47%)attempts 14–17goals 1–1
- Braun – Hagg12:59
xG 0.12–0.42 (22%)attempts 5–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).