Sun, Mar 8, 2020·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Colorado Avalanche 4, San Jose Sharks 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 18 | 210 | 16 | 424 |
| SJS | 17 | 17 | 111 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:16SJSJoe ThorntonPPAssists: Evander Kane, Timo Meier · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 16:17COLNathan MacKinnonPPAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, J.T. Compher · Slap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 1:59COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Vladislav Namestnikov · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–1
- P2 3:41SJSMelker KarlssonAssists: Marcus Sorensen · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–2
- P2 8:41COLVladislav NamestnikovAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–2
- P3 15:27COLJoonas DonskoiGWGAssists: J.T. Compher, Erik Johnson · Tip-in, 0.13 xG4–2
- P3 19:16SJSNoah GregorPPAssists: Timo Meier, Kevin Labanc · Snap, 0.11 xG4–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 10:33COLVladislav Kamenev: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 15:04SJSEvander Kane: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 19:40COLIan Cole: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:35SJSMelker Karlsson: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:53SJSTimo Meier: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:49SJSJoe Thornton: Interference2 min
- P3 4:53COLVladislav Namestnikov: Holding2 min
- P3 18:13COLIan Cole: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestNieto – Nichushkin – Bellemare9:04
xG 0.76–0.46 (63%)attempts 14–6goals 0–1
- Landeskog – Namestnikov – MacKinnon13:19
xG 0.82–0.53 (61%)attempts 13–10goals 2–0
- Donskoi – Compher – Jost9:05
xG 0.31–0.15 (68%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Kamenev – Dries – O'Connor3:58
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Girard2:34
xG 0.50–0.02 (96%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Cole – Graves4:49
xG 0.28–0.01 (97%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Graves – Girard11:09
xG 0.58–0.42 (58%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- Couture – Kane – Gregor3:30
xG 0.16–0.20 (44%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Thornton – Labanc – Meier6:57
xG 0.08–0.13 (39%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Sorensen – Karlsson – Kellman7:25
xG 0.19–0.34 (36%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Noesen – Gambrell – Bergmann5:34
xG 0.00–0.17 (0%)attempts 0–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Davidson7:16
xG 0.29–0.08 (78%)attempts 3–8goals 1–0
- Vlasic – Heed4:41
xG 0.40–0.22 (64%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
- Simek – Knyzhov2:19
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).