Tue, Mar 10, 2020·Prudential Center, Newark
Pittsburgh Penguins 5, New Jersey Devils 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 17 | 113 | 313 | 533 |
| NJD | 16 | 06 | 110 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:29PITEvan RodriguesAssists: Jared McCann · Snap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 12:46NJDNikita GusevPPAssists: Pavel Zacha, P.K. Subban · Snap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 4:15PITJustin SchultzAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Bryan Rust · Snap, 0.12 xG2–1
- P3 7:11PITEvgeni MalkinGWGAssists: Kris Letang · Snap, 0.06 xG3–1
- P3 10:24NJDMiles WoodAssists: Nico Hischier · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–2
- P3 13:18PITEvgeni MalkinUnassisted · Snap, 0.18 xG4–2
- P3 18:45PITKris LetangENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.42 xG5–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 11:04PITJack Johnson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 15:11NJDJohn Hayden: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:17NJDJack Hughes: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:42NJDJesper Bratt: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 3:36PITSidney Crosby: High sticking2 min
- P3 3:54PITKris Letang: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:29NJDDamon Severson: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Hischier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Malkin – Rust8:37
xG 0.47–0.19 (71%)attempts 12–3goals 2–1
- Blueger – Lafferty – Tanev10:15
xG 0.25–0.16 (61%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Crosby – Zucker – Sheary9:17
xG 0.40–0.54 (43%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Hornqvist – McCann – Rodrigues8:33
xG 0.14–0.52 (21%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPettersson – Marino11:40
xG 0.57–0.12 (83%)attempts 12–3goals 1–0
- Johnson – Schultz12:46
xG 0.49–0.69 (42%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
- Letang – Dumoulin17:01
xG 0.65–0.87 (43%)attempts 14–12goals 2–1
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestPalmieri – Wood – Hischier11:37
xG 1.09–0.87 (56%)attempts 13–10goals 1–3
- Hayden – Rooney – Kuokkanen4:45
xG 0.16–0.09 (63%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Hayden – Rooney – Anderson2:27
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Gusev – Zacha – Bratt9:54
xG 0.23–0.25 (48%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeverson – Mermis14:16
xG 0.73–0.34 (68%)attempts 11–16goals 1–1
- Subban – Mueller14:48
xG 0.69–0.58 (54%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
- Subban – Carrick3:12
xG 0.07–0.20 (26%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).