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Ice Lab

Tue, Mar 10, 2020·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit

Carolina Hurricanes 5, Detroit Red Wings 2

Away

Carolina Hurricanes

5

Final

Home

Detroit Red Wings

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 76% of the time.

DET winsCAR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CAR112110314536
DET1131804225

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 8:58CARMorgan GeekieAssists: Warren Foegele, Jake Gardiner · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
  2. P1 13:28DETTyler BertuzziAssists: Anthony Mantha, Filip Hronek · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
  3. P2 9:30CARNino NiederreiterPPAssists: Jake Gardiner, Vincent Trocheck · Slap, 0.38 xG2–1
  4. P2 15:26DETChristoffer EhnAssists: Madison Bowey, Darren Helm · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–2
  5. P3 1:38CARJustin WilliamsPPGWGAssists: Andrei Svechnikov, Sebastian Aho · Slap, 0.24 xG3–2
  6. P3 4:23CARSebastian AhoSHAssists: Teuvo Teravainen · Wrist, 0.18 xG4–2
  7. P3 17:58CARSebastian AhoPPAssists: Jake Gardiner, Teuvo Teravainen · Wrist, 0.13 xG5–2
Penalties (17)
  1. P1 10:27CARBrock McGinn: Tripping2 min
  2. P2 7:41DETJonathan Ericsson: Interference2 min · PPG
  3. P2 12:05CARJordan Martinook: Tripping2 min
  4. P2 17:57CARNino Niederreiter: Hooking2 min
  5. P2 19:03DETAnthony Mantha: Interference2 min
  6. P2 19:03CARJordan Staal: Roughing2 min
  7. P2 19:03DETTyler Bertuzzi: Roughing2 min
  8. P3 0:35DETDarren Helm: Tripping2 min · PPG
  9. P3 3:38CARMartin Necas: Boarding2 min
  10. P3 7:24CARBrady Skjei: Hooking2 min
  11. P3 15:53DETAnthony Mantha: Roughing2 min
  12. P3 15:53CARJordan Staal: Roughing2 min
  13. P3 17:00DETRobby Fabbri: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
  14. P3 17:00DETRobby Fabbri: Roughing2 min
  15. P3 17:00CARHaydn Fleury: Roughing2 min
  16. P3 17:00CARVincent Trocheck: Misconduct10 min
  17. P3 17:00DETTyler Bertuzzi: Misconduct10 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CAR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0DET
45% to win55% to win
← CAR attackDET attack →
  1. P1 20:00Fabbri won the faceoff against Aho
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CARDET
36Shots on goal25
3.3Expected goals1.9
58Shot attempts39
36Faceoffs won32
4Power plays5
26Penalty minutes24
13Hits10
6Blocked shots11
10Giveaways18
1Takeaways8

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.

Carolina Hurricanes

Forward lines

  1. bestNiederreiter – Trocheck – Necas6:14

    xG 0.25–0.06 (81%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0

  2. Williams – Staal – Svechnikov2:45

    xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0

  3. Martinook – Foegele – Geekie6:50

    xG 0.20–0.14 (58%)attempts 6–2goals 1–1

  4. Williams – Staal – McGinn7:00

    xG 0.19–0.17 (53%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestGardiner – van Riemsdyk8:40

    xG 0.47–0.17 (73%)attempts 16–5goals 1–0

  2. Edmundson – Slavin16:51

    xG 0.58–0.41 (59%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0

  3. Skjei – Fleury12:40

    xG 0.07–0.38 (15%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1

Detroit Red Wings

Forward lines

  1. bestBertuzzi – Mantha – Larkin12:12

    xG 0.52–0.32 (62%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0

  2. Glendening – Fabbri – Timashov4:13

    xG 0.18–0.13 (58%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0

  3. Nielsen – Ehn – Timashov3:28

    xG 0.07–0.07 (47%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0

  4. Glendening – Perlini – Fabbri3:20

    xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestDaley – Bowey2:19

    xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 1–0

  2. Daley – Lindstrom3:36

    xG 0.20–0.09 (70%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0

  3. Daley – Biega7:00

    xG 0.23–0.13 (64%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

DET 1.9 xGCAR 3.3 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

DETCAR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 64/100 · #396 of 1082 this seasonSwing 1.73 · 7 goals in reachComeback index 45% (winner's lowest chance)
CAR 100%5050%50DET 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +29 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 76% of the time.

DET winsCAR wins

Simulated goal difference (DET − CAR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).