Tue, Mar 10, 2020·American Airlines Center, Dallas
New York Rangers 4, Dallas Stars 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 210 | 29 | 08 | 427 |
| DAL | 09 | 011 | 213 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:19NYRAdam FoxAssists: Artemi Panarin · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 10:12NYRMika ZibanejadSHAssists: Brendan Lemieux, Pavel Buchnevich · Snap, 0.35 xG2–0
- P2 7:03NYRKaapo KakkoGWGAssists: Brett Howden, Jesper Fast · Snap, 0.14 xG3–0
- P2 17:18NYRKaapo KakkoAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Adam Fox · Backhand, 0.13 xG4–0
- P3 1:23DALRoope HintzAssists: Miro Heiskanen, Corey Perry · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–1
- P3 11:52DALAndrew CoglianoAssists: Miro Heiskanen, Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.25 xG4–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 13:22NYRJacob Trouba: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:46DALDenis Gurianov: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:46NYRRyan Lindgren: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:46DALDenis Gurianov: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:32DALBlake Comeau: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:20DALJamie Benn: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:20NYRBrendan Smith: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:30DALAndrew Cogliano: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:30NYRRyan Lindgren: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:45NYRPhillip Di Giuseppe: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:30NYRBrendan Smith: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestFast – Strome – Panarin7:38
xG 0.33–0.08 (81%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- McKegg – Lemieux – Gauthier6:02
xG 0.34–0.18 (65%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Zibanejad – Di Giuseppe – Buchnevich6:22
xG 0.31–0.31 (49%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Strome – Lemieux – Panarin2:09
xG 0.14–0.33 (30%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFox – Lindgren14:14
xG 0.90–0.57 (61%)attempts 13–12goals 3–1
- Smith – Trouba14:36
xG 0.41–0.55 (43%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Staal – DeAngelo10:01
xG 0.42–0.85 (33%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestComeau – Cogliano – Faksa2:39
xG 0.34–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Dickinson – Hintz – Gurianov5:26
xG 0.26–0.10 (72%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Benn – Seguin – Dickinson2:57
xG 0.24–0.14 (63%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Hintz – Gurianov3:02
xG 0.20–0.12 (62%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlingberg – Lindell12:37
xG 0.57–0.40 (59%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Sekera – Oleksiak7:16
xG 0.57–0.42 (57%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Oleksiak – Heiskanen4:28
xG 0.12–0.14 (45%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).