Thu, Jan 14, 2021·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Washington Capitals 6, Buffalo Sabres 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 214 | 29 | 25 | 628 |
| BUF | 18 | 19 | 29 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:43WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: Alex Ovechkin, T.J. Oshie · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 8:48BUFTaylor HallPPAssists: Victor Olofsson, Jack Eichel · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–1
- P1 10:33WSHT.J. OshiePPAssists: Alex Ovechkin, John Carlson · Slap, 0.46 xG2–1
- P2 7:05WSHJohn CarlsonAssists: T.J. Oshie, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–1
- P2 13:23WSHBrenden DillonAssists: Conor Sheary, Lars Eller · Wrist, 0.01 xG4–1
- P2 18:46BUFTobias RiederAssists: Dylan Cozens, Jake McCabe · Wrap-around, 0.04 xG4–2
- P3 0:20BUFJake McCabeAssists: Jack Eichel, Tage Thompson · Slap, 0.05 xG4–3
- P3 0:46WSHJakub VranaGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.15 xG5–3
- P3 18:06BUFVictor OlofssonAssists: Taylor Hall, Sam Reinhart · Wrist, 0.13 xG5–4
- P3 18:57WSHGarnet HathawayENAssists: Nick Jensen · Wrist, 0.55 xG6–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:30WSHT.J. Oshie: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P1 9:34BUFRasmus Dahlin: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 2:40WSHNic Dowd: Holding2 min
- P2 11:19BUFColin Miller: Cross checking2 min
- P3 10:04WSHNic Dowd: Illegal check to head2 min
- P3 15:27BUFJake McCabe: Fighting5 min
- P3 15:27WSHBrenden Dillon: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Oshie – Backstrom13:03
xG 0.40–0.08 (83%)attempts 13–7goals 2–1
- Hagelin – Dowd – Hathaway9:27
xG 0.15–0.12 (55%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Kuznetsov – Wilson – Vrana12:12
xG 0.40–0.52 (43%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Eller – Panik – Sheary8:17
xG 0.03–0.18 (16%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Chara – Jensen17:26
xG 0.17–0.18 (48%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Schultz – Dillon13:07
xG 0.49–0.57 (46%)attempts 7–12goals 2–0
- Carlson – Orlov16:03
xG 0.24–0.48 (34%)attempts 11–14goals 0–2
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestEakin – Rieder – Cozens7:23
xG 0.25–0.19 (57%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Staal – Reinhart – Olofsson11:52
xG 0.28–0.25 (53%)attempts 6–8goals 0–2
- Sheahan – Skinner – Lazar7:37
xG 0.15–0.19 (44%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Hall – Eichel – Thompson14:13
xG 0.20–0.39 (34%)attempts 9–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Jokiharju12:20
xG 0.59–0.23 (72%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- McCabe – Ristolainen12:11
xG 0.41–0.18 (70%)attempts 13–9goals 2–0
- Ristolainen – Dahlin2:30
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).